Post Time: Mining for live long shots in Kentucky Derby 149
The long prep season has finally come to an end and now it’s Derby Week, Buffalo!
The draw for post positions for the 149th Run for the Roses will be held at 2 p.m. ET Monday at Churchill Downs and will be streamed live on KentuckyDerby.com.
Forte, the Florida Derby winner, is your likely morning line favorite in Kentucky Derby 149. Last year’s 2-year-old champion will look to become the third Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to wear the roses, joining Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016).
It’s never too early to start searching for long shots.
In three of the last six years, a horse featured in the annual long shot column has reaped big dividends by hitting the board.
In 2021, Mandaloun finished in second place at 27-1; in 2019, we featured Code of Honor, who was placed second after the disqualification of Maximum Security at odds of 14-1; and in 2017, Lookin at Lee finished second from the rail at 33-1.
A $20 ladder bet ($2 win, $6 place and $12 show) on Mandaloun paid $69 and $80, respectively, not a bad return on a $20 investment. The same bet returned $171 and $104, for the place and show on Code of Honor in 2019.
It’s time to start digging deep to find a price horse to hit the board.
Here’s a look at several of the potential bombers that will likely go off at double-digit odds:
He might not be named for the Buffalo Sabres sharpshooter, but it will serve you well to remember this name on Derby Day. He is in the race due to the catastrophic injury suffered Thursday morning by Wild On Ice, who broke his hind leg during training and had be euthanized. Skinner assumed the final spot in the gate and will be part of the 20-horse field.
The son of Curlin has the stamina to handle the mile-and-a-quarter test, something his sire handled with ease during his Hall of Fame career. He was right there on the wire in the Santa Anita Derby three-way photo won by the highly regarded Practical Move, and he was closing well after being bumped at the start and carried wide most of the race. His speed figures indicate he keeps moving forward in his races, and he could continue to do so on the First Saturday in May.
His damsire, Malibu Moon, was the sire of 2013 Derby winner Orb, who won in the slop that afternoon and Curlin himself excelled on a wet surface. If it comes up sloppy or muddy on Derby Day, he’ll be an even better consideration.
First-time Derby rider Juan Hernandez takes over for Victor Espinosa and will ride for trainer John Sheriffs.
“Skinner ran great in the Santa Anita Derby and if you like (winner) Practical Move, you have to like this horse as he only got beat a half-length,” Hernandez’s agent, Craig O’Bryan, said Thursday. “I think he has a super chance in the Kentucky Derby.”
O’Bryan was the agent for Eddie Delahoussaye when the Hall of Fame jockey won the roses in both 1982 with Gato Del Sol and 1983 with Sunny’s Halo.
A colt I’ve had my eye on throughout the prep season is the Holy Bull winner. He could easily clunk up late in the race to grab a piece of the exotics and upset some bettors’ trifecta and superfecta wagers. The son of Into Mischief out of a Tapit mare is trained by Bill Mott with the hardworking Junior Alvarado in the irons. He shouldn’t have an issue with the distance and is another who could thrive on an off track.
His workout tab suggests that he likes the Churchill surface with a bullet work April 13, and he had two races over the track during his 2-year-old season, breaking his maiden and finishing second to Confidence Game. Solid ladder bet candidate.
Running out of the Tim Yakteen barn, the son of Good Magic out of a Scat Daddy mare hit the board in all three preps he entered. Transferred from the Bob Baffert barn after winning the Sham Stakes due to the Churchill ban on Baffert, the horse finds itself with a Hall of Fame jockey aboard in Johnny Velazquez, a two-time Derby winner (three, if you count Medina Spirit).
He’s been working sharply for Yakteen, and with a good post position, he has enough speed to garner good position early and improve as the distances get longer. He is another who will be a factor on an off track as a grandson of Curlin.
If the gray colt can acclimate to the Churchill surface he's one to consider as a viable long shot.
Those are three horses to keep an eye on as they work over the Churchill Downs strip in the mornings. Look for the annual Degrees of Separation column early next week. The News will be on-site in Louisville starting Wednesday.
Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association and tweets @EquiSpace.
