Predicting 2023 National League Rookie of the Year

Editor’s note: This is the first in a series of MLB prediction articles from the hosts of the Pinwheels And Ivy Podcast. Subscribe to the Pinwheels And Ivy Podcast on YouTube and on your preferred podcast platform for more Cubs and White Sox talk.YouTube. Apple Podcasts. Spotify. . .

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Last year’s winner: OF Michael Harris II – Atlanta Braves

Aldo: RHP Hayden Wesneski – Chicago Cubs
Zo: OF Corbin Carroll – Arizona Diamondbacks
KFidds: OF Jordan Walker – St. Louis Cardinals
Mitch: OF Jordan Walker – St. Louis Cardinals

Corbin Carroll
FanDuel: +350
DraftKings: +400
Caesars: +500

Jordan Walker
FanDuel: +390
DraftKings: +360
Caesars: +250

Hayden Wesneski
FanDuel: +4000
DraftKings: +3000
Caesars: +2500

Zo, KFidds and Mitch are all going with one of the two favorites, predicting a ROY award for either Corbin Carroll or Jordan Walker. They’re both top prospects in MLB and will be with their respective teams on Opening Day. Walker is going from Double-A straight up to the majors, while Carroll already played in 32 games for the Diamondbacks in 2022.

Here are their projections for the 2023 season according to ZiPS.

Jordan Walker ZiPS Projections
.237/.299/.380, 12 HR, 66 RBI, 67 R, 11 SB, 1.5 fWAR, 116 G, 515 PA

Corbin Carroll ZiPS Projections
.253/.341/.428, 16 HR, 83 RBI, 75 R, 20 SB, 4.2 fWAR, 131 G, 580 PA

Although those projections clearly put Carroll as the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year heading into the 2023 season, Walker had a monster spring training with the Cardinals that has shifted his odds.

Two of the last five ROYs in the National League have been outfielders and they’re both Atlanta Braves, with Ronald Acuña Jr. winning the award in 2018 and Michael Harris II winning it in 2022.

Meanwhile, I’m all in on Cubs starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski and if you bet on him you’ll also get great value on your wager. The right-hander won a spot in the Cubs starting rotation after having a dominant performance in spring training and he’s already shown how good he can be, getting his first taste of MLB in 2022.

It’s tough for a starting pitcher to win rookie of the year, the last winner coming in 2016, when Michael Fulmer won it in the American League with the Detroit Tigers. The National League did have back-to-back starting pitchers win rookie of the year in 2013 and 2014, as Jose Fernandez and Jacob deGrom won it, respectively.

Since 1947, the Cubs have had six ROYs; Billy Williams, Ken Hubbs, Jerome Walton, Kerry Wood, Geovany Soto and most recently Kris Bryant in 2015.

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