Premier League best bets: 20/1 Ben Chilwell backed to fire first vs West Ham
Our tipster Jones Knows is all over taking advantage of some fancy prices surrounding flying Chelsea wing-back Ben Chilwell this weekend.
How did we get on last weekend?
I was handed a middle name last weekend. You can now call me: Jones Nearly Knows.
Three points were handed over to the bookmakers - only on loan obviously - as all three bets went down the pan.
But fine margins were at play.
Tomas Soucek to score a header at 22/1 vs Bournemouth had plenty going for it but the big lad struck a post with an, albeit, effort with his toe but he will be landing soon enough at big prices. Then there was the Trent Alexander-Arnold assist at 3/1 vs Chelsea. Was is it they sing? Damn VAR? Well, damn VAR indeed. Mohamed Salah thought he had scored via a crisp pass from the assist-king but those pesky lines ruined our fun.
P+L = -3
Ben Chilwell is a player to monitor and back across the attacking prop markets under Mauricio Pochettino, who allowed his wing-back so much attacking licence last weekend and was demanding his midfielders look for that switch with every attack.
Such was Chilwell's aggressiveness, he was the second highest player when analysing the average positions of the Chelsea team. He recorded a shot on target to a backdrop of 0.16 expected goals - a poor first touch cost him - while also having a goal disallowed when venturing into a central area. His goal numbers could rocket this season and with his price trading at an overpriced level we must take advantage.
Continuing with the Chilwell theme, you can take you pick across a variety of Chilwell attacking prop markets this weekend - they are all overpriced. I've come down on him to have at least one shot on target for the purposes of the double.
The overs and BTTS combination bet is one that has landed in 14 of 20 away matches under Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi and if anything, the average goals under him this season may rise having lost Moises Caicedo. That was on show vs Luton where the new boys created ample counter-attacking situations last weekend as Brighton may just take time to work out the new defensive balance without their world-class midfield destroyer.
Wolves played like a team that will throw more caution to the wind on Monday so I would expect their average goals per game ratio to be on the up this season. This encounter looks ripe for goals.
