Premier League betting: Back Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton to reach top four at 15/2

Fresh from achieving their highest position, our tipster Jones Knows is backing Brighton to go again under Roberto De Zerbi and finish in the top four at 15/2.

There was once the 'big six' - it is now the 'big seven'.

It really should be the 'big eight'.

Brighton are knocking on that door. And they shouldn't be ignored.

Newcastle have managed to muscle their way into the elite much quicker than many anticipated. They have got there based on smart strategy. Not by breaking the bank.

As Chelsea showed last season, having financial muscle is one thing but putting the right people in charge to develop the football strategy rates as far more important than going on a spending spree.

The top four is no longer a closed shop. Clubs like Newcastle can compete consistently. So, it does slightly stagger me to see arguably the shrewdest and savviest run club in the Premier League being so disrespected and disregarded by the outright markets as we approach the first kick of the season.

Like Newcastle, Brighton's place among the elite is one to take very seriously.

If the daring and destructive Roberto De Zerbi maintains his influence at Brighton in the same manner as last season then there will be slim chance of attaining prices like 9/4 on a top-six finish or the 15/2 currently available on a top-four finish this time next season. A Champions League push has to be on the cards.

A delve into Brighton's expected goals data in 2023 paints an incredible picture when assessing their prices for another high finish.

From January 1 to the end of the season, Brighton led the way for expected goals (51.3) in the Premier League, bettering Manchester City's tally of 46.18 for the same period. No team had more shots (605) or shots on target (228) than the scintillating Seagulls, who really are the hottest ticket in town when it comes to the entertainment factor.

De Zerbi's courageous and exciting attacking style does lend itself to his defence being exposed but even if including their expected goals against record, their overall expected goals difference (expected goals - expected goals against) of 21.6 ranked them second only to Pep Guardiola's team. Brighton's process is frighteningly impressive.

And they won't be changing for anyone. Expect the same.

This belief, hunger and aggressive style of football in the backdrop of a no-pressure environment to achieve, actually makes them very appealing when considering the expectation levels at Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool this season - all of whom do have significant questions to answer about sustaining a challenge towards the top two.

Brighton's underdog status is something to look at in a positive view. Teams are still trying to work out a formula to stop them. Declan Rice said chasing Brighton's midfield when 4-0 down with West Ham "demoralising" and "embarrassing". That domination is usually something we associate with treble-winning Manchester City. Brighton - despite what the outright markets may tell you - are not far away from that type of level.

What really adds huge appeal to backing these selections at the advertised prices is Brighton's ability to take points off their rivals going for the European places. Their recent record against Arsenal, Man City, Tottenham, Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea and Liverpool is outrageous.

In their last 20 matches across all competitions against the aforementioned opponents, Brighton have won 11 of those fixtures, winning the aggregate score 35-26 while also winning the expectedgoals battle 24.24-22.94. That is a phenomenal set of results for a team outside the so-called elite.

Why are these Brighton prices trading so generously then?

Losing Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool I'd assume is the big one. A fine player indeed. Yet not one that is irreplaceable.

That is the beauty with Brighton, their model isn't built around one player. If a top-class one departs, there is the platform in place in terms of coaching and first team opportunities for the next Mac Allister to step up. Marc Cucurella, Yves Bissouma and Leandro Trossard all departed at various points over the past 12 months and yet the club continued to grow. In came Pervis Estupinan, Moises Caicedo and Kaoru Mitoma.

There will be another Mac Allister lurking. I have complete faith in the decision makers.

The extra load courtesy of the Europa League may take Brighton's eye off the Premier League, granted. Yet that theory is based on assumptions rather than hard evidence as we've yet to see how this squad and manager will cope with the extra demands. They may relish it. And, there is enough wiggle room in these prices we're playing at to take a calculated risk on the extra games not becoming a factor in their overall performance levels.

Back them to gate-crash the top four.