Projecting the final U.S. Ryder Cup spots: Lucas Glover, Justin Thomas or …?

“I think about the Ryder Cup every second I’m awake, basically,” Keegan Bradley told reporters Tuesday at the BMW Championship.

We have much less at stake than Bradley — who is mentioned further below — but we sometimes feel the exact same way. So with two weeks left in the PGA Tour season and LIV Golf on hiatus, we’re looking at who should fill the final four spots on the United States Ryder Cup team when it heads to Rome in late September.

Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark have already automatically qualified for the team, and for the purposes of this exercise, we’re operating under the premise that six more — Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Max Homa, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth — can freely make nonrefundable travel reservations. They’ll be at Marco Simone.

But that leaves four open spots for captain Zach Johnson, with a U.S. team that dominated the 2021 Ryder Cup and 2022 Presidents Cup thrown into tumult by poor play from some very popular names (Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Cameron Young included) and resurgent performances this year from others (Lucas Glover, Bradley, Rickie Fowler among them). What is Johnson to do? Here’s how three of our experts — Brendan Quinn, Brody Miller and Hugh Kellenberger — would fill out the roster. We gave them the list of names and asked them for a yay or nay on each.

Keegan Bradley

Quinn: Nay — however, of all the players at the BMW Championship this week, Bradley might be the most motivated to pen himself a storybook win and profoundly change his career with a trip to the Ryder Cup.

Miller: Nay. Listen, I get it. In the overall aggregate of the season, he’s had a fantastic year. He even won an elevated event in Connecticut. Good for him. But sometimes we have to nitpick, and his great season has primarily been steadily making cuts and finishing in the top 30 or 40. That doesn’t make him one of the 12 best Americans to me. If I have to choose between Bradley or Glover, I take Glover in a heartbeat.

Kellenberger: Nay. While understanding the emotional appeal around Keegan Bradley and Ryder Cups, he’s basically one good week in Connecticut nearly two months ago away from not even being on this list.

Sam Burns

Quinn: Nay. Yes, he won Match Play. He also went 0-3-2 at last fall’s Presidents Cup and hasn’t ranked in the top 12 among Americans in strokes gained over the last three months, six months or year.

Miller: Nay. Crazy, right? Six months ago he seemed like a guarantee. He was 26, one of the best young talents in the game and best friends with Scottie Scheffler, making them an obvious pairing. Even if he had just an average year, I would have picked him. But this has been far too disappointing of a season, and going T29-CUT-T32-CUT at majors doesn’t boost your trust level in big settings. Barring an awesome two weeks in Memphis and Atlanta, he’s out.

Kellenberger: Nay. I came out of the Presidents Cup pretty high on Burns, and certainly figured he’d coast onto this Ryder Cup team. But the body of work in 2023 has been decidedly average, outside of the Match Play event in Austin. But that may have just been that Bermuda Burns magic. Alas, Marco Simone uses paspalum.

Bryson DeChambeau

Quinn: Nay. If DeChambeau had backed up his incredible 68-61-58 week at Greenbrier with another did-you-see-what-he-did?! performance at Bedminster, he might have as strong of a case as any hot hand out there. Instead, he went 73-73-68. His play over the last two years does not warrant a selection.

Miller: Nay. He’s earned his way in. He’s played pretty well at majors this season. He won a LIV event two weeks ago with an incredible 58. I’m happy to see DeChambeau getting his form back, because I think he’s a slightly misunderstood guy. I just don’t know if I want him in that locker room, and who knows where things stand with the LIV guys.

Kellenberger: Nay. A tough call after a decent major season (T4 at the PGA, T20 at the U.S. Open) and that 61-58 weekend at Greenbrier earlier this month. I don’t even mind the reputation as someone very difficult to work with because it was fine two years ago, and there are enough guys on the team you can find one to work with DeChambeau for two days (an all-LIV pairing of Koepka and DeChambeau tantalizes on multiple levels). It’s just not a good course fit, as you know the Euros will have the fairways tight and the rough penal. Maybe in two years at Bethpage Black.

Tony Finau

Quinn: Nay, but this is where I have the most pause. Finau made it to Whistling Straits as a captains pick despite having only one win over his prior five years. Now, he’s won four times since that last Ryder Cup and he’s … not going to make the team? Something doesn’t add up here. It starts with Finau’s putter running hot and cold, and it ends with him not posting a top-25 finish in eight major appearances over the last two summers. I want to pick Finau, but that flat stick simply scares the hell out of me. He ranks 213th among eligible players in strokes gained putting, per Data Golf’s rankings.

Miller: Nay. He’s fallen off too far since his April win in Mexico. His putting has gone from a strength the past few years to losing one to two strokes putting most events the past four months. I’m sure he’ll get it back, but he’s unrecognizable right now.

Kellenberger: Nay. One of the rare bright spots five years ago in Paris, Finau has been mired in a slump for most of the past four months — one top 10, two top 25s. Ugh. Should he turn it around the next two weeks, I leave open the right to change my mind. But it doesn’t look great.

Rickie Fowler

Quinn: Yay. He ranks among the 12 best Americans in strokes gained over the last three, six and 12 months. He seems, in theory, like a good course fit. He’s as good as it gets in the locker room. He’s experienced. This is the pick everyone can get behind. No-brainer.

Miller: Yay. Not even a debate for me. T5 and T23 in the last two majors. Before Memphis, he finished top 40 in 18 of his previous 22 tournaments, and 15 of those were top 20. If I’m making my personal confidence rankings going into Rome, Fowler might be as high as six or seven. He’s been fantastic, plus he’s maybe the top locker room pick possible.

Kellenberger: Yay. Of all the guys to emerge over the last eight months into contention, this is maybe the one I’m most excited about. It’s just very cool to see Fowler go from the edges of the PGA Tour, basically relying on exemptions week to week, to again become one of the top players on tour. He’s also just such a great dude, someone Zach Johnson can throw with just about anyone to get an emotional lift out of.

Lucas Glover

Quinn: Nay. I don’t even think it’s a realistic conversation right now. When building a team, you have to weigh a player’s entire resume. From the 2021 Ryder Cup to the beginning of this past June, Glover missed 20 cuts in 48 starts and posted only six top 30 finishes. What he’s doing now is incredible, and it’s a great story, but a five-week heater doesn’t erase two years of reality. Five weeks from now, it’s a safe bet that Lucas Glover is playing like Lucas Glover again.

Miller: Nay. But my thoughts might be entirely different in two weeks. This is easily the most torn-up I’ve been over a pick this entire cycle. I’m somebody who usually steers clear of guys on a short-term “heater,” but this is slightly different. It’s not normal variance. He made an actual change that might be indicative of who he is now. In his absurd last six tournaments, he’s still been — for the most part — the same driver and ball striker he’s always been. That’s not going to suddenly change, but his putter change has immediately erased his greatest flaw and made him kind of elite. So if he can have another two good weeks to end the season, yeah, I think I’ll put him on. Because it’ll prove this might just be who he is going forward.

But at this moment, if I’m being completely honest with myself, I think the U.S. already has a bunch of grinders who earned it (Clark, Harman, even Fowler), and I’d rather have one more big talent. But is that just my stupid brain?

Kellenberger: Nay. If the Ryder Cup were in two weeks, then it would be a different story. Bring the hot hand, sure. But there’s a month in between team selection and balls going up at Marco Simone, and that’s enough time for luck to run out. I see the appeal anyways — Glover is a wonderful ball striker with the irons and accurate off the tee. If the putter change holds, he could be in a career renaissance. But how many players struggle for a lifetime with the putter and suddenly get it fixed long-term? Would we be valuing these back-to-back wins nearly as much if they had happened back in January? Are we really going to bring a guy who hasn’t played international team golf in 14 years, never been on a Ryder Cup team and didn’t even qualify for a major this season? There are just too many questions.

Talor Gooch

Quinn: Nay. That is all. Zero chance.

Miller: Nay. Sometimes reality takes precedent over the facts. Yeah, he’s been really good. But if Zach Johnson is giving captain’s picks to LIV guys, he’s taking DeChambeau or DJ. It’s just the truth.

Kellenberger: Nay. He’s second on the season-long LIV leaderboard, and that should merit a look. But he missed the cut at the PGA and the Open Championship, and didn’t even bother trying to qualify for the U.S. Open. There are too many better options for me to pick someone who looked at a chance to play a major and said, “Nah, I’m good.”

Dustin Johnson

Quinn: Yay. You know, it’s easy to be a prisoner of the moment. And it’s easy to get lost in the noise. And it’s easy to follow group think and narratives. But if I’m Zach Johnson, I look at this list of names and ask myself, which one is not like the others? And that’s Dustin Johnson. The guy is a hall of famer. He’s put in the work and the years and the time. He’s still close enough to his prime to ignore. Everyone else on this list has combined for 55 points in Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup play. DJ has put up 23 by himself. All I know is I don’t want to hear the Takes that will follow if the Americans go to Rome and lose while leaving behind an alpha who went 5-0-0 the last time out.

Miller: Nay. Basically, I was choosing between Johnson and Thomas for the one wild card spot. I think Johnson is still pretty well-liked, so adding him would not by any means be a culture issue. Still, it’s hard to predict how the LIV guys will be handled by Zach Johnson. The players have a large say, and I think they’ll want Thomas.

Kellenberger: Nay. When it goes, it goes. It may have gone for Dustin Johnson. We’re asking that T10 at Los Angeles Country Club to do a lot of work to make the case right now for Johnson, who really dominated LIV in Year 1 but has fallen back this time (one win, three other top-10s in 11 events) around. He was awesome two years ago. But that was two years ago. Like Brody, I feel like there’s only enough room for one bet on a veteran. I’m choosing Thomas.

Collin Morikawa

Quinn: Yay, I guess. No one on this list excites me less than Morikawa. He’s just one of the best American golfers in the game and a ball-striking savant. Ho-hum. Kidding aside, despite the lack of recent wins, Morikawa has done enough on the course to warrant selection. He also went 3-0-1 at Whistling Straits. The biggest compliment to Morikawa is simple — his current ranking of No. 10 in the Ryder Cup standings feels like the absolute worst he’s capable of. He can be so much better, and maybe he will be in a month.

Miller: Yay. It’s been (another) deeply unsexy season from Morikawa. Two straight years without a win. And not even really in the mix on Sundays at any important tournaments since January. But he’s been solid all year. He’s lived steadily in the top 30 at most events and is No. 10 in the DataGolf rankings. And even if this is an unfair boost, he’s still one of the top talents in the world with two majors. Considering how many guys on the bubble have fallen apart, he’s still proving himself more than them.

Kellenberger: Yay. I’m not asking the ninth or 10th guy on the team to carry a partnership or deliver multiple points on his own. I’m asking him to contribute. The guy who is fourth in shots gained approach (behind only Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm), No. 17 off the tee, positive in the other categories and accurate off the tee does that. So Morikawa is on the team for me, and I’d love another 3-0-1 record from him.

Justin Thomas

Quinn: Yay. This man has tested all bounds of what’s acceptable for a player to warrant a captain’s pick, but you can’t ignore experience and winning. This team has two total novices already built-in with Harman and Clark qualifying via points. You don’t need to reach on someone who might be swallowed by the moment in Rome. Let’s remember that the goal is to win on European soil for the first time in three decades. You know who led the Americans in points at Le Golf National? Justin Thomas. Let’s not overthink this.

Miller: Yay. I’m a hypocrite, I know. I don’t think you can make multiple of these picks. I think you get one pure “talent” or “legacy” pick, and Thomas is it. He’s too good and he has too much Ryder Cup experience to leave him off. I know he’s been worse this season than every person I’ve said no to so far, but just pure gut I want him on that roster. Especially when you already have a handful of grinder types who earned their way in like Harman and Clark. Balance that out with JT.

Kellenberger: Yay. I know every argument against Thomas. It all makes total sense. It would be justifiable in every way to leave Thomas at home. But I’m looking at the international team play record — 16-5-3 in the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup. I’m looking at his partnership with Jordan Spieth, a team Johnson expected to be able to rely on throughout this process. And I’m saying that Thomas doesn’t have to be the best player in Rome. He just has to be able to beat the guy across from him. I can trust he’ll figure out how to do that.

Cameron Young

Quinn: Nay. Reminder — this exercise is not who we think Zach Johnson will pick, but it’s who we would pick. While whittling down my list, I came to a point of five players (Young, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson) for three available spots. Young is the one I cut. Sure, he’s ninth in the current Ryder Cup standings and the reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, but he hasn’t won since 2021, is losing .21 strokes putting this season, and was one of only five American players to post a losing mark at the last Presidents Cup. Young could do himself a large favor by showing out at Olympia Fields and East Lake the next two weeks. (For the record: I think ZJ will take him, regardless.)

Miller: Yay. I’ve been pretty tough on Young throughout the projections because his April through June was pretty darn bad. Bad enough that he had to fight to stay in the top 50 and advance to Chicago. I don’t think he’s very reliable in crunch time, and the Ryder Cup is one big crunch time. But at the end of the day, he bounced back with a great T8 at the Open Championship to give two top-10s at majors this year. He’s a big-time 26-year-old talent, and I think Johnson will pick him.

Kellenberger: Yay. Cameron Young’s 2023 has been some very good hits (T8 at the Open, T7 Masters, solo second Match Play) and some wide misses (missed cuts at the PGA, Memorial and even the 3M Open). That’s scary. Young still has the talent to show up in Rome and be a dude, delivering multiple points and setting himself up for multiple Ryder Cups over the next decade. Or he could be a liability. I’m watching closely the next two weeks.

(Top photo of Lucas Glover: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)