2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that nailed 8 majors
If Scottie Scheffler is able to finish on top of the leaderboard this week at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, he'll become the first golfer since Matt Every (2014-15) to win this event in back-to-back years. Scheffler will have to stave off a number of serious contenders if he wants to rewrite the history books. Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Max Homa are among the experienced players looking to dethrone Scheffler and win the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023.
Play gets underway from Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge on Thursday, March 2. Rahm enters this week's event as the 7-1 favorite according to the latest 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds. He's followed by McIlroy (19-2), Scheffler (11-1), Homa (19-1) and Collin Morikawa (21-1) on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,300 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model predicted Jon Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express and the Genesis Invitational. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure's model was all over Scottie Scheffler's first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.
In addition, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.
This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023: Morikawa, a two-time major champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn't even crack the top 10. Morikawa has finished T-6 or better in three of his last four starts on the PGA Tour and he secured a T-9 finish in his last start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
However, Morikawa has struggled mightily with his putter this season, ranking 94th in strokes gained: putting (.063), 110th in putts per round (29.08) and 159th in total putting (287.6). He also ranks 213th on the PGA Tour in approaches from inside 100 yards, which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field.
Another surprise: Tony Finau, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Finau has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Finau certainly has the game to finish near the top of the leaderboard this week. The 33-year-old has won five times on the PGA Tour, which includes a victory at the Houston Open earlier this season. Finau is currently ranked second in strokes gained: total (2.358), fifth in birdie average (5.08) and sixth in scoring average (68.35). If he's striking the ball well this week, he'll have a great shot at finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks
The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 24-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's PGA picks here.
So who will win the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including last year's Masters.
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, field
Jon Rahm +700Rory McIlroy +950Scottie Scheffler +1100Max Homa +1900Collin Morikawa +2100Justin Thomas +2300Xander Schauffele +2400Will Zalatoris +2400Tony Finau +2800Patrick Cantlay +2800Jason Day +3100Viktor Hovland +3100Tyrrell Hatton +3600Matthew Fitzpatrick +3600Sungjae Im +4100Jordan Spieth +4100Cameron Young +4600Sam Burns +4800Tom Kim +5000Sahith Theegala +5500Hideki Matsuyama +5500Keith Mitchell +5500Chris Kirk +6500Shane Lowry +6500Corey Conners +7000Tommy Fleetwood +7000Keegan Bradley +7500Adam Scott +8500Billy Horschel +8500Rickie Fowler +8500Justin Rose +9000Adam Hadwin +9000Seamus Power +9000Gary Woodland +9000Min Woo Lee +11000Luke List +11000Taylor Montgomery +11000Tom Hoge +12000Wyndham Clark +12000Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12000Aaron Wise +12000Alex Noren +12000Ryan Fox +13000Si Woo Kim +13000Lucas Herbert +14000Nick Taylor +14000Adrian Meronk +15000Thomas Detry +16000Russell Henley +16000Brian Harman +17000Beau Hossler +17000Sepp Straka +18000K.H. Lee +19000J.J. Spaun +19000Harris English +19000Byeong Hun An +20000Justin Suh +21000Patrick Rodgers +21000Taylor Pendrith +21000Joel Dahmen +21000Sam Ryder +21000Taylor Moore +22000Emiliano Grillo +22000Kurt Kitayama +22000Joseph Bramlett +23000Danny Willett +23000Ben Griffin +24000Garrick Higgo +24000
