Projecting the O's Playoff Odds: Is There a Chance?
The Orioles are currently 4.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the final AL Wild Card spot. Seattle Mariners are half a game ahead of the Blue Jay and a one-game ahead for Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles have to win their remaining 25 games to get into the playoffs. They have 6 more games against the Jays, but they lost both games on Labor Day. For this projection, I'm going to focus on the two teams directly above the O's in the standings as of today, the Seattle and Bluejay's.
The O's are in the playoffs. They are expected to win the remaining series against Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros.
Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros and New York Yankees are the teams with the best chances of winning the playoffs.
The O's play the Toronto Blue Jays in a 3-game series in September. The O’s are 7-6 against the Blue Jay this season. If the series goes as I laid out above, the Orioles would go 16-9 over the final 25 games and finish with a final record of 88-74.
The Toronto Blue Jays' remaining schedule is very difficult. The team's record at the end of the season is 88-74. Every team the Blue Jay's will face is vying for a playoff spot. Baltimore Orioles' schedule has the 5th toughest remaining schedules in the MLB.
Texas Rangers (3 games, Away): Jays win series 2-1. Tampa Bay Rays (5 games) lost series to Jays 2 -3. New York Yankees ( 3 games home): Jays lose series 1-2. Boston Red Sox (three games away): Blue Jays won series 2,1
The Seattle Mariners have the second easiest strength of schedule in the MLB. They have a combined win percentage of .439. The O's have an even worse record. The Mariners are 90-72 for the season.
The remaining strength of schedules for all American League teams are as follows:
The Baltimore Orioles are in the AL wild-card race. They are currently third in their division. Their best-case scenario is to finish with 88 wins and win the head-to-head record tie-breaker.
The Baltimore Orioles are in the playoff race. Their chances of making it to the playoffs are 25-30%. Zach Eisner is an avid Orioles and Ravens fan. He works as a Senior Quantitative Risk Analyst for OneMain Financial and is a part-time graduate student studying Data Science at the University of Michigan.
