Providence vs Marquette Predictions, Picks, and Odds

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15 March 2024

Providence vs Marquette Predictions, Picks, and Odds

Marquette's missing its best player against a motivated team that's trending in the right direction. Find out if it's enough for our college basketball picks to back underdog Providence on Friday.

The Providence Friars and Marquette Golden Eagles will meet with a trip to the Big East Championship at stake.

It was important for Providence to get a few wins in the conference tournament if it wanted to keep its March Madness odds alive. It's been able to do that so far, and it got one of its best wins over the season last night over Creighton. Last night was a battle for Marquette against a team also playing for its tournament lives in Villanova. Eventually, the Eagles were able to get the job done in overtime to advance in the Big East Tournament bracket.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the conference tournament odds and give our college basketball picks and predictions for Friday, March 15th.

Providence vs Marquette best odds

Providence vs Marquette picks and predictions

The vibes around this Providence team feel right.

The Friars' win over one of the best teams in the conference last night seemed fairly comfortable. Providence took the lead in the 1st half and never relinquished it after, as it outscored the Jays in both halves. It was a statement of how well Providence is playing and how much confidence they'll have going into tonight.

"This time of the season, some teams are playing for their lives," Providence coach Kim English said after the win over Creighton. "(We had) ups and downs all season, adversity, less-than-ideal mindset and moments, bad shots, bad plays, bad turnovers, bad responses, (but) we got 40 minutes to be our most locked-in selves. That was one of our best efforts of the season."

I'll be backing Providence to cover and get the job done today as my best bet. I projected Marquette as a PK in this game and will lean to the side with more value.

This Marquette team looked soft and fragile from the eye test last night.

That's a problem against one of the most physical teams in the league. It's why it lost games to Seton Hall and Providence already once this year. It's tough to quantify the "toughness" aspect of teams, but the Eagles lost the war on both backboards, and although it got to the rim a good deal, it struggled to finish once it did. These are the best two things to consider when quantifying a team's toughness.

On the court, I can map out some success for Providence in a few places.

We talked about the absence of Tyler Kolek a lot yesterday regarding what he does offensively and how much more reliant Marquette becomes on its spot-up offense. That directly plays into the hands of the Friars. Throughout the season, the Providence group has been exceptional in that regard. They enter this matchup holding opponents to 35% shooting on such sets, which places them in the Top 15% of college basketball defensively against spot-up shooters. Typically, teams can score around the rim against the Friars as they only have a little size there. However, Marquette has yet to be highly efficient there much of the time without Kolek in the lineup.

On the other side of the ball, Marquette objectively becomes a better defensive team without Kolek, but there are still places where Providence can attack. The most apparent thing I expect to change the game is its defense against spot-up shooters.

Devin Carter will get open looks, and how he's been playing over the last month makes that a scary thought. Marquette's spot-up defense is among the worst in the conference. It’s allowed an eFG of over 50% and nearly .992 points per possession on such sets. Carter is one of the best scorers in the Big East. The thought process here is he gets a few shots to go early, gets hot, and takes over the game. A good version of Carter would be the best player in the game.

I can't turn down the opportunity to have the best player on the floor against a team missing its best player at this price. Providence has likely played itself off the bubble; a win tonight would submit its NCAA Tournament ticket. I expect the Friars to do it, and I certainly expect them to do it more often than the 35% implied number.

My best bet: Providence moneyline (+180 at BetRivers)

Providence vs Marquette same-game parlay

Providence moneyline

Under 139

We're taking our best bet and pairing it with the most likely gameflow for that best bet to win. That's a low-scoring game.

The key for Providence in this game is to keep it low in possession and slow. I trust the Friars' ability to slow down Marquette in the halfcourt. I don't trust their ability to slow them down in transition. That said, over the last month, Providence has done an excellent job of controlling the pace of games, so there's only a little reason to think it doesn't happen here. While my projection only sees a point of value here, this game will likely go Under if Providence wins.

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Providence vs Marquette spread and Over/Under analysis

Providence will get the job done today with no points necessary. This is one of those angles you love to see in March.

The Friars are a team that looks connected and is playing some of its best basketball of the season. On the other side of the ball, many teams last night, this Marquette team still looked relatively unsure of itself. I like Providence's ability to make enough shots to space the rest of the floor and Carter's ability to make enough critical plays late.

As discussed above, I expect this game to go Under, as it should be a grind-it-out affair played in the halfcourt. It's in Providence's best interest to keep this game out of transition, and it's done well with that much of the year. Three of the last four games Providence has played have all gone under, so it should be no surprise to anyone that those were all wins. Conversely, Marquette has been an even 5-5 to the Over the last 10 games.

Providence vs Marquette betting trend to know

Providence has hit the moneyline in 20 of its last 32 games (+9.35 Units / 6% ROI) Find more college basketball betting trends for Providence vs. Marquette.

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