Marquette vs. Creighton prediction: College basketball odds, best bets

No. 5 Marquette will put its three-game winning streak on the line when the Golden Eagles visit No. 12 Creighton on Saturday afternoon. 

However, Marquette’s 91-69 home victory over Providence on Wednesday might have come at a cost after Tyler Kolek, the reigning Big East Player of the Year, left the game in the second half after suffering an oblique injury. 

With Kolek’s status up the air, oddsmakers have made Creighton a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 150.5.

Even if he does play, there’s a chance he won’t be at full strength.

While his uncertainty makes Creighton an appealing side in this matchup, I’ve uncovered an intriguing trend that places even more value on the total.

Replacing Kolek will be a difficult task for Marquette if the senior point guard can’t play.

Kolek leads his team with a 24.0 Player Efficiency Rating and Evan Miya ranks him as the eighth-most indispensable player in the country. He also ranks second in usage rate at 23.9%.

In addition to averaging 15 points, Kolek leads all Division 1 players with 7.6 assists per game. Marquette’s second-leading distributor is 6-foot-11 forward Oso Ighodaro with 2.8 dimes per game. 

Thus, Kolek’s absence would certainly impact Marquette from a scoring perspective, along with his ability to create shots for his teammates.

Given the Golden Eagles entered the second half against Providence with a 24-point lead against Providence, it’s clear they were already well in control of the game.

Kolek, who had 28 assists (including a school-record 18 against DePaul) over his previous two games, still finished with a team-high six dimes despite playing only 18 minutes. 

Ighodaro and freshman forward Ben Gold finished tied for second with three assists apiece. 

It’s fair to say Marquette doesn’t have a like-for-like replacement for Kolek at the point guard position. 

With a quality point guard like Kolek, it’s no surprise Marquette enjoys pushing the pace, ranking 72nd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric.

If Kolek can’t go on Saturday, Shaka Smart could opt for a more controlled pace.

Creighton’s style of play is the antithesis of Marquette’s in that the Bluejays prefer a much more methodical approach, ranking 233rd in adjusted tempo. 

They use up the clock to hunt for better shots by taking advantage of their inside-outside game.

Oftentimes, Creighton ends its possessions with a 3-point shot, as it ranks seventh in attempts with an average of 29.1, per TeamRankings.

Defensively, the Bluejays use their length to guard the perimeter, ranking 16th in limiting opponents to just 17.3 3-point attempts. 

By limiting the opponent’s attempts from the perimeter, the Bluejays only allow 5.6 3-pointers per game, which is the 12th-best mark in the country. 

Of the 11 teams ahead of Creighton in opponent 3-point field goals, 10 come from mid-major conferences. 

Those numbers highlight how effective the Bluejays are at deploying this strategy, considering it has the 12th-most challenging schedule. 

Lastly, it’s worth noting the under cashed in seven of the past 10 meetings in this series and each of the last four. 

Despite ranking 21st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, the betting market continues to overprice the total in Marquette games.

After all, how else would you explain its 17-11 mark to the under with an average total of 149.2 points?

It’s tough for Marquette to repeatedly go over the total when the opposing team’s strategy is to slow the game down as much as possible.

That’s why if you look at Marquette’s game log, you’d be hard-pressed to find consecutive games that finished over the total. 

The zig-zag theory is one way to take advantage of these Marquette totals. Our Action Lab database shows an alternating trend in game totals following a Marquette over. 

This trend is on an 11-1 run to the under dating to last season, and it’s currently on a 6-0 run.

When you factor in Kolek’s injury, I think we have a decent chance for this trend to continue. 

Pick: Under 150.5 (-110, PointsBet)

Michael Arinze is a sports handicapper for Action Network. Follow him on X @Vegas_Analytics.