Puerto Rico vs. Dominican Republic: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Puerto Rico vs. Dominican Republic Odds
On Wednesday, the 2023 World Baseball Classic will continue with a highly-anticipated matchup between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Both teams enter action this evening 2-1, but oddsmakers still have the Dominican Republic priced as heavily juiced 1.5 run favorites on the spread in this matchup, with over/under on the total set at 10 runs.
Puerto Rico
Hamel gets the start
Dominic Hamel, a former third-round draft pick by the New York Mets in 2021, will take the mound for Puerto Rico in this matchup. Last year, Hamel posted a 3.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across two levels of the minor leagues, spanning 119.0 innings of work. His main Achilles’ heel is his poor command. At both levels he pitched at in 2022, Hamel struggled to a walk rate north of 10 percent.
Facing a Dominican Republic lineup with multiple legitimate Major League stars, he will need to limit free passes if he wants to keep the damage to a minimum in the early frames.
What to expect from Puerto Rico’s offense
OPS for the Classic. Rather than being propelled by one player, Puerto Rico has nine players with a .749 OPS or better thus far in the tournament – of which, Francisco Lindor has shined the brightest, with a 1.174 OPS.
Javier Baez, Martin Maldonado, Javier Baez, Emmanuel Rivera, and Eddie Rosario have each contributed a .940 OPS or better as well, showing the true depth of this lineup. Regardless of the opponent, this is an offense that will make life difficult for the opposing pitching staff.
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Dominican Republic
Cueto gets the ball
Johnny Cueto will toe the rubber to start tonight’s contest for the Dominican Republic. In 2022, Cueto had a 3.35 ERA, 4.02 xERA, 3.79 FIP, and a 1.23 WHIP in 158.1 innings of work for the Chicago White Sox. He excelled at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 69th percentile in average exit velocity, but rarely induced swings-and-misses, making him vulnerable to poor defense or poor luck on batted balls each time he takes the hill.
Cueto was also significantly worse against left-handed batters compared to right-handed batters last season. Facing lefties, he had a 4.03 FIP and a 1.32 WHIP, compared to a 3.60 FIP and a 1.15 WHIP against righties. Left-handed batters also had a higher batting average, lower strikeout percentage, and a better walk rate compared to right-handed hitters against Cueto.
What to expect from the Dominican Republic lineup
Despite the overwhelming number of recognizable names in the Dominican Republic lineup, there are only four players with a minimum of seven at-bats who have above a .750 OPS for the tournament.
Juan Soto and Manny Machado have been the two offensive leaders for this group to begin the Classic, combining to go 9-for-26 (.346 batting average) with three home runs thus far. The remainder of this lineup has only four extra-base hits in 78 at-bats.
Fortunately, this group will get to see a right-handed pitcher in this pivotal matchup, which they are well-equipped to do damage against, relative to their exploitable weaknesses against left-handed hurlers.
Puerto Rico vs. Dominican Republic – Picks & Predictions
Tonight at loanDepot park, the atmosphere is likely to be electric for this high-energy matchup between two global rivals. Entering play, both of these teams rank in the top eight in OPS for the tournament, combining for 42 offensive runs scored in their six pool play games to date.
On Wednesday night, the Dominican Republic is capable of doing a lot of damage early to a young hurler, who has command issues. Free passes are one of the easiest ways to ignite offensive rallies in the game of baseball. On the other side, Puerto Rico should have plenty of opportunity to put the ball in play against Cueto, who rarely strikes out opposing batters.
If we see a little bit of good fortune on balls in play, or if these starting pitchers struggle with their command – we could see a lot of runs in a hurry tonight. Take the over.
PICK: Over 10 (-115, DraftKings)
