Purdue Boilermakers at No. 2 Michigan Wolverines College Football Preview: No slowing down
The College Football Playoff selection committee showed how it feels about the Michigan Wolverines on Tuesday night, slotting them behind Ohio State and Georgia due to a weak schedule so far. Rankings are interesting, but they do not change the calculus for Michigan down the stretch; the mission has always been winning out, and that remains the case.
Analytics and Vegas believe the Wolverines have a good shot to do so, but the final three games are far from gimmes. However, this Saturday is not quite the same sort of test. The Purdue Boilermakers got a new coach this offseason but lost a lot from last year’s Big Ten West-winning squad. As a result, they sit at 1-4 in conference play and come into Ann Arbor as massive underdogs.
Now for the latest edition of my favorite game: How Does This Week’s Opponent Compare to Past Opponents in SP+?? Purdue sits 82nd overall, one spot ahead of UNLV, with an offense (86th) around Minnesota and a defense better than Indiana but worse than Michigan State (and much worse than Nebraska, Minnesota, and Rutgers).
This is a long-winded way of saying...Purdue is not that good. Michigan has been determined to steamroll every conference opponent in its way, and with all of the conspiracies and rumors swirling around, expect the Wolverines to be out for more blood. While the Big Ten Championship Game was just 14-13 at halftime last year, the sequel is likely to be much more lopsided.
Purdue Boilermakers (2-6, 1-4) at No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (8-0, 5-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, Nov. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: NBC
Offense: New York, New York
J.J. McCarthy’s suddenly impressive Heisman odds may be aided by the lack of clear frontrunners across the nation, but the junior quarterback is absolutely deserving of the recognition. His ability to win the award will come down to his performances against Penn State and Ohio State, but he does need to accumulate some more counting stats as well.
The Boilermakers should provide the opportunity for that to happen. A few weeks ago Kyle McCord put up 334 yards and four touchdowns on this secondary, and McCarthy has looked miles better than his rival counterpart. Purdue has been middle-of-the-road against both the run and the pass, so expect Michigan to continue to ride the hot hand, which has been the passing game (as weird as that is to say).
Turnovers have not been a problem for the Wolverines this year, but the Boilermakers have been pretty good at forcing takeaways, recording nine already in conference play. This is about the only big thing to watch out for on this side of the ball, though, as it is hard to imagine the visitors being able to contain this offense very well.
Defense: More of the same
Purdue has point totals of 17, 44, 14, 7, and 14 in Big Ten games this season, so aside from a Ryan Walters revenge game, scoring has been a challenge. Given that Michigan’s conference non-garbage time points allowed are 7, 0, 10, 7, and 0, this looks to be a clear stoppable-object-meets-immovable-force situation.
That stoppable object is led by Hudson Card, who has been quite underwhelming since transferring from Texas. With nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns, expect the secondary to be looking for more big plays, with more pick sixes never off the table. Card is not a rushing threat and is unlikely to air it out a ton downfield, though he will put up a good number of attempts in this offense.
Accordingly, the Boilermakers do not offer a ton on the ground and average just 3.7 yards per carry. Devin Mockobee again leads the team in yards and carries, and he did have a decent showing in the Big Ten Championship game loss. That being said, the offensive line is going to struggle all night, and Walters is unlikely to have much time to hit any of his weapons like Deion Burks or T.J. Sheffield with much consistency.
One-track mind
The Michigan coaches and players claim they are blocking out all of the noise right now, but I think that is a half truth. This does not seem like the type of team that is going to be easily distracted given how many seniors and upperclassmen are playing big roles, but instead, McCarthy and friends look ready to channel everything as fuel and motivation.
Another blowout win might not silence the haters — or change the minds of the CFP committee — but it would show that this team truly is of a one-track mind as Jim Harbaugh claimed earlier this week. McCarthy and Roman Wilson will not complain about getting to rack up more stats, and Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards can use some more positive plays as well.
All signs point to another fun time Saturday night in Ann Arbor. The defense will keep rolling and has a good chance for another turnover or two, and plenty of offensive possessions should finish in the end zone. The intensity ratchets up a ton next weekend, but there is no such thing as coasting through a week at this point in the season.
