Racing Insights, Thursday 17/08/23 geegeez.co.uk
Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 3.40 Salisbury
- 4.10 Salisbury
- 4.35 Leopardstown
- 6.30 Windsor
- 8.05 Leopardstown
And although the Racing League is at Windsor on Thursday, the best of the UK races from the free list, despite having a small field, has to be the 4.10 Salisbury, a 6-runner, 3yo+, Group 3, Flat contest over a straight mile on good ground...
This initially looks like two races in one, with me agreeing with the early market in suggesting that the winner and placer(s) come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto, whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance, but let's have a closer look at the whole field...
REGAL REALITY is now 8yrs old and won a Group 3 race last time out, meaning he's now won one in each of the last six years. He won this race back in 2020 making him the only course and distance winner in the field and if not troubled by a 75-day absence, should be right in the mix despite a 3lb penalty for winning the Diomed at Epsom.
CHICHESTER makes a debut for the Johnston yard two months after his last run for Keith Dalgleish, which saw him win a Listed race at York. He's in good nick with tewo wins and two runner-up finishes from five runs this year, but it has to be said that his best form is at Class 2 and on the A/W. Was well beaten in a Gr3 at Sandown two starts ago.
MIGHTY ULYSSES won a Listed race at Newmarket last July thre weeks after finishing closer than 5th of 11 might suggest in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was, in fact, only 0.8 lengths behind the winner in a blanket finish where two lengths separated 1st and 7th. Was well beaten in a Gr2 race at Ascot a month ago, but can be excused on his first outing in 11 months. He should come on for that run as he drops in quality and wears cheekpieces for the first time.
POGO is a keen front-runner who made the frame in three group 2 races and won twice at Group 3 in a sustained run of form from August '21 to July '22. He was a runner-up another Gr2 this time last year, before winning one at Newmarket in October, but clearly needed the run when 10th of 12 at Ascot in June and was only 3rd of 6 at Newmarket last time out. Much will depend on whether he's allowed to dominate.
DANCING MAGIC is a 9-race maiden whose best effort was on his third start when a runner-up in a Listed event at Haydock almost a year ago. This will be his eighth attempt at winning a Class 1 contest and based on his 5th of 6, beaten by 9 lengths, in a Listed race at Newbury last month, he won't be ending the day in the winners' enclosure.
EMBESTO is a lightly-raced 3yr old who'll be aided by a weight allowance here. He has two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts to date, but that 2nd of 6 in a Listed event at HQ last month is the pick of his runs after 2 wins (1 x maiden, 1 x novice) at Class 5. There could/should be more to come but he's a bit of an unknown quantity.
Feature of the day is Instant Expert...
...and it suggests that Regal Reality and Chichester might not like the underfoot conditions. it's true that the former does prefer it a little quicker, but he has won on good to soft and soft ground, so there's no real reason why he wouldn't 'get' good ground, whilst Chichester also likes it quicker and is better on the A/W. Dancing Magic's poor record stands out like a sore thumb on these win stats, whilst the place date says...
...that Pogo might well have a good chance of making the frame here, as he's well versed under today's conditions. Again Chichester and Dancing Magic look weak and this is probably a 4-way battle for the money.
I've got to admit that the following draw data...
...surprised me a little, as I wasn't expecting any advantage from the draw in a small field over a straight mile, but those drawn highest seem to have struggled to win as often as those closer to the rail, so that's another nail in the coffin of Dancing Magic/Chichester's chances, which is just further affirmation of how unlikely it'd be for them to win. If we then consider how those races have been won, they'd really need to favour front-runners if Pogo is going to gatecrash the three original horses I expected to be first home, so let's check the pace stats...
...which is good news indeed for Pogo. Hold-up horses haven't fared well at all from a win or place perspective which would be yet another reason not to back Chichester...
..and it's not ideal for Mighty Ulysses.
Summary
I started by saying that the winner and placer(s) would come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance and whilst I think this might still be the case, I've also shown enough reasons to ditch Chichester but to promote Pogo to the rank of 'possibles'.
Mighty Ulysses now looks marginally weaker than Regal Reality and Embesto, so I fear that he's the one of the trio most at risk, especially if he's held up and Pogo pours it on early. Pogo's best chance of winning/making the frame is to try and get out sharpish, but I think Regal Reality might just go with him and at 4/1, the old boy would be my tentative/marginal pick here.
It's going to be competitive, despite the small field and any one of the four could win/make the frame, so I won't be putting too much money down. Only Dancing Magic is at backable E/W odds, but even 25/1 couldn't tempt me!
