Racing tips: Heartache Tonight can be the next stable star for David Menuisier

Under Control got me back to winning ways with a confident ride by Nico. I'd rate that as a good performance to win as she did, beating the horse I said I was worried about in Pretending, but she did what Pretending does and that's not wanting to win.

The other two runners on Thursday were terrible, not quite sure what happened in France with Awaal, but that performance was too bad to be true.

In other news, Bet365 are no longer Best Odds Guaranteed from the night before, and they have joined the dark side with BOG starting at 8am on the time of racing. This is very frustrating as the thread has to go up early, so I have no choice but to back the horse and state the prices when the thread goes live. Whatever the price is stated is whatever will be recorded in the stats, unless I say otherwise. Annoying if we get a big drifter and it wins, but that's how bookmaker's role these days, wanting every advantage as possible.

Saint-Cloud 2:45 – Heartache Tonight 13/8 (2pt)

Gutted to have missed the early prices on this filly, but that was always going to happen when a certain lad on Twitter puts up a lot of Menuisier horses and does well in doing so, but I thought that Heartache Tonight could be much better than her RPR of her debut, but he beat me to tipping her up.

David Menusier does very well when sending his horses to France, and this mare is a half-sister to his stable star Wonderful Tonight, so it's interesting that he sends this filly to France for a Group 3 for just her second run. I think she could be well above average and looks to be taking a similar route to her big half-sis, who went on to achieve some great things for David and the same connections as this filly.

Ground conditions are Saint-Cloud are very soft and that will be perfect for this filly who should relish soft ground like her siblings.

Newbury 1:30 – Kalik 11/10 (1pt)

Backing horses on debut isn't normally a wise idea, but backing newcomers from Amo Racing, blind, is very profitable. They are normally up there for being the top owners at the start of the season with their early 2yo's and this season has been no different with them winning 3/6, with 2 of those being with today's selections trainer, Dominic Ffrench Davis, who had previously had a fairly poor record with 2yo's, so it goes to show they buy some good young horses.

I'll be taking a chance on Kalik to win on debut. He has a nice pedigree for a 2yo, being by Prince Of Lir, who was a precocious 2yo and has produced many good 2yo's, especially at the start of their careers and is out of a Mare who produced Oscula who was a very consistent and good horse, as well as being a good 2yo.

Ayr 1:50 – Atlanta Brave 4/1 (1pt)

I was very confident of a big run when Atlanta Brave ran at Newbury last time in a Class 3 race, being backed into 7/2 but he ran a strange race. He had previously won over 2m 3f and 2m 5f, and based on that run at Newbury last time around he was struggling for speed and looked in need of a longer trip, so today's decision to move up to 3m is definitely seen to be as a positive one.

He is a previous PTP winner on good ground, so the drying ground isn't a concern, but also the stamina isn't a concern either. Kerry Lee has enjoyed a good season, as have the owners of the selection as they also own Nemean Lion who has won a fair amount of races this season including a Grade 2. I can't imagine they'd be sending this horse all this way if they didn't fancy their chances, strongly. It's only an 8k race, which isn't out of this world, so I'd imagine they're expecting a big jump in form now he's tackling a longer trip, which looks sure to suit.

Ayr 3:00 – Bass Rock 3/1 (1pt)

Many punters were definitely hoping that Bass Rock was going to turn up at Cheltenham for either the Plate or the Grand Annual, as he had previously shown some very nice pieces of form earlier in the season and looked like a horse who would appreciate a good gallop. Connections decided to swerve that idea and they've gone for this race instead, which is a decent pot worth £26k and I can see why.

This race is obviously much easier than the Cheltenham Festival handicaps and considering he runs this track well, with two wins to his name, including a win at this festival back in 2021 this would've been the plan for quite a while.

His handicap mark is quite high these days, being 140. But, based on his run at Carlisle at the start of the season, that looks well within his limits and the run at Wetherby looks better now with the winner going on to win again the time after. He is still very lightly raced over fences with just three runs under his belt so you can excuse his latest run at Ayr, as that was simply not a true showing. He's not been seen since and been kept fresh for the Ayr Festival, so I'm expecting a big run.

13/8 @Bet365