Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tips & Race Preview
We've made it! Another year has passed and we're back at Cheltenham for the best four days of racing of the year.
The first race of the Festival is none other than the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) which sees the best 2m novices of this season battle it out for the title of the best over hurdles for the shortest trip.
In the last 10 years, we've been blessed by some absolute superstars who have managed to win this before going on to bigger and better things. The likes of Vautour, Douvan, Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill, who I'm sure is the best hurdler I'll ever see, all won this race but only three of them went off as the favourite. This race hasn't been a happy hunting ground for favourites, with just four winning it since 2013. Finding a huge upset isn't normally the way for this, with Labaik being the only stand-out outsider to win this (25/1), so backing those who are in and around the head of the market isn't a bad place to be if you're having a bet.
Let's get stuck into the preview…
Cheltenham 1:30 – Il Etait Temps 4/1 (1pt)
It's been well advertised that the Irish Novices in every race at this year's Festival are better than the UK bunch. I can't really argue that, especially in this race. The main UK hope is Tahmuras, who is trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by the Noel Fehily Syndicate. This lad has done little wrong in this year's campaign, he has notched up three wins, winning by a combined 16L, winning two Class 1s along the way, including the Tolworth Hurdle Grade 1.
Normally, the Tolworth Hurdle isn't a good line of form to read from, especially for those who run in the Supreme, as it's normally a level below what is required, and is often deemed to be a ‘weak' Grade 1. Constitution Hill won it last year, so that shut a lot of people up about that, but we all know that horse is a freak.
This year's renewal has had the form franked by 3rd and 4th who were 1st and 2nd in a Grade 2 the other week at Kelso. Not the best piece of form, but it's not bad. Tahmuras didn't win that race in a great style, looking quite laboured when climbing the Sandown Hill. With the form that Nicholls is in, I couldn't totally write him off at an EW price, but I think he'll have to improve 10-15lbs to get involved for the first-place spot.
Marine Nationale has been the ‘shrewdies' horse for this race. He has an unbeaten record from bumpers and hurdle races, recently winning a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse before Christmas, so not that recent ��. He's a good horse, who looks to have a good turn of foot, often running in races which don't seem to be run at a good pace. The form of the Grade 1 looks okay, with the runner-up and third horse going on to win a Grade 3 since, and the fourth winning a Grade 1. Personally, I don't think those in behind are world-beaters, but I did think Marine Nationale was better than his winning margin of a head that day. He's not been on the track since, so fitness will have to be on trust, but Barry Connell is a great trainer and if he thinks this is the correct path for him, you've got to put your faith in him. Personally, I think he will be pitching away but might have to settle for a place.
The smart horse from the flat is High Definition. I have a love-hate relationship with this fella. He's burnt my fingers so many times on the flat and was often described as a boat because he was so slow. He made a good debut over hurdles, producing an RPR of 138, but then unseated his rider the time after when he was taken on for the lead by Facile Vega. He might get an easy lead of things, but I do worry about his jumping around Cheltenham, especially when they come down the hill at pace, he'll stay the trip, but I have my concerns about his ability.
Facile Vega has been the horse on every punter's lips since he bolted up at the Festival last year in the Bumper. In hindsight, that Bumper contest was woeful. The form of the horses in that race has been terrible since, with only Facile Vega winning a Class 1 since (I think), so you've got to say did he beat much? I think he is a good horse, and I'd be happy enough to give him another chance, after his flop at Leopardstown last time around when he was virtually pulled up. Willie Mullins blasted Paul Townend after the race saying he went too quick and that was the reason for the horse's poor run. I think there was something wrong with him that day, as he weakened very quickly. At the time of writing, he is on the drift, currently around 5/2, which seems a fair enough price. He'll love the ground and he is still the one they have to beat, but that last run puts doubts in my mind, and I think taking him on might be the smarter choice.
My fancy for this race is Il Etait Temps. I doubt many of you will have good enough memories of last year's festival when I tipped him in the Juvenile Grade 1, eventually won by Vauban. He was keen as anything that day, taking a pull for at least the first 60-70% of the race, but he travelled through the race like a smart horse, and I've kept my eye on him ever since. He has won twice this season, being a runner-up on his other run to Facile Vega.
He didn't jump great that day and when he did win his Grade 1 last time around he jumped like a proper two-miler. He was low and quick at his hurdles, and as expected, he is much better when he's got a good pace to aim at, as he doesn't get keen and his high cruising speed brings him into the race. I think a combination of the hood, and experience has improved him. It's good to see the hood stays on, and I'm hoping High Definition goes off like a nutter, or maybe a big-priced outsider, who has a 0.1% chance of winning, takes him on for the lead and sets it up for a closer. Danny Mullins takes the ride, and I think he has a decent chance of walking away from the Festival as the leading jockey
