Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips: Hattrick chasing Cemhaan has some red hot form entering the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes
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A nice winner yesterday with Kyprios winning the Ascot Gold Cup under Ryan Moore. Hopefully, some of you got on and some of you might have done a forecast with my honourable mention Mojo Star who I said would run well at big odds. I'm not stupid and I know that Stradivarius would've won yesterday if he got a clear run and Frankie didn't make a total mess of it. Frankie's had a mare this week and it could be controversial, but is he past his best? Let me know in the comments on whether you think Frankie should retire at the end of the season, or do you think he should carry on.
Ascot 2:30
Trainer: K R Burke
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Form: 1
An open Albany Stakes, like it normally is every year, but that hasn't stopped me from having a bet in this. CATHY COME HOME surely comes into this with a nice EW chance based on the fact that she's currently in one of the best stables for 2yo's this season, so they will know where she's at and how she compares to the rest of them and the fact she was very well supported on debut, which was backed up by a smart performance.
Karl Burke has arguably the best 2yo in England so far with Dramatised, so he will be able to judge how good his other juveniles are. In the Racing Post, he has been quoted saying, “She's working really well and she's probably overpriced, which I can understand going from a Musselburgh maiden to a Royal Ascot race. She's a smart filly and on her home work she's not a million miles behind Dramatised”. Based on those comments, I think she is definitely worth a small EW play in this. If those comments are true, she has a very nice chance of winning this, as I don't think it's got the quality of some of the other 2yo's races.
It's hard to weigh up the form of the rest of them, but I think she is a good EW pick and with extra places on offer she's worth a go.
Ascot 3:05
Trainer: M D O'Callaghan
Jockey: Leigh Roche
Form: 3510-1
On paper, the Commonwealth Cup looks like a minefield, but as I've delved into the form I don't think I like the chances of the UK horses other than Perfect Power, who deserves to be favourite, but I've still got question marks about him.
A lot of the form that punters will be getting stuck into for this is the Sandy Lane which took place at Haydock, won by El Caballo, which had Flaming Rib, Go Bears Go and Wings Of War in behind. The more I look at that piece of form I think it's not that strong in reality and if one of those came out and won this it would show how weak the 3yo sprinters are.
The one which caught my eye was the Irish raider, TWILIGHT JET. Michael O'Callaghan is a great trainer and does well with the small operation that he has, and normally has a few each year which run very well at Royal Ascot. Crispy Cat was an unlucky loser yesterday in the opener where the winner cut Crispy Cat up and left that horse with no chance, but it goes to show that he does bring over some live chances in these kind of races.
Twilight Jet is the highest-rated 3yo sprinter in Ireland on the back of his impressive win at Naas in the Group 3 in the middle of May. That run was very impressive where he won by 3L beating an Aidan O'Brien 6/5F into second place. That run produced an RPR of 117 which was higher than when Sioux Nation won it back in 2018 and was only 4 lower than when Caravaggio won it back in 2017, so he's in some good company with that victory. He'd have to have improved from 2 to 3 to win this as he was behind the likes of Perfect Power last season, but I think he has matured and gotten better. He stays this trip extremely well, seems to handle the conditions nice enough and looks primed for a big run.
The trainer is full of confidence and has said, “He's improved a bit from Naas and if he can put up a similar performance I think whatever beats him will win. I think he'll run a huge race”.
Ascot 3:40
Trainer: George Baker
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Form: 219-11
I'm honestly very surprised to see odds of 16/1 floating around for CEMHAAN, as I thought every man and his dog would be backing him for this race as he arrives on a double and going for the hattrick.
A mark of 92 is no gimmick for a 5yo, but he is in the form of his life and the recent 5lb rise in the weights can be destroyed if he continues his upward trajectory. He is a strange horse as he does a lot wrong in his races like running keenly and carrying his head quite high, but you can't doubt his ability and his willingness to win.
The form he has looks strong with the runner-up from the Salisbury race going on to win twice since, as well as the fourth who has won 3x since and has improved from a 79-rated horse to a 97-rated animal. The fifth in that race has recently just won as well, so the form is starting to look ridiculously red-hot. From his most recent race, the 3rd has since won at Chester on the weekend just gone, with the 5th winning next time out as well.
This is obviously a very competitive race, but I'm all over this lad and it's great to see some nice odds available on the one you like a lot, as normally other tipsters would've crashed the prices down and you're backing a horse which is a lot smaller than ideal.
Ascot 5:00
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Jockey: Hayley Turner
Form: 42-31
Some of you maybe remember when I tipped up Onassis to win this race back in 2020 when I was a tipster for the big meetings, supporting Thommo. She won that year at odds of 33/1 and the reason why I backed her, as well as having a nice pedigree and should've been better than her handicap mark, was the fact that Charlie Fellowes and Hayley Turner combined in the year before to win this exact race. They didn't have a runner in the 2021 renewal of this race, but they're back again this year and back with another very unexposed horse who looks tailor-made for this assignment.
Unfortunately for me, the bookies and punters have been wiser this year and FRESH HOPE is currently a 6/1 shot which is shorter than I was hoping for, but I can see why. This filly has a nice profile and the run at Doncaster last time out looks like she could be ahead of her handicap mark of 82. Jamie Spencer sneaked her into contention and didn't have to get too serious on her, and she probably won better than the winning margins would suggest. This is Charlie's race at Royal Ascot, and I put him in the same light as Dan Skelton and the County Hurdle as you know for a fact whenever they have a runner in that race he's going to be going close and is worth a few quid. The same applies to the Sandringham for Charlie, and he would've had this filly in his mind for this race for some time now and he got a run under her belt to get into this, as he was probably worried she might not get in off a mark of 78 (she would've) but it shows good planning to me and shows this has been the plan for some time.
- Ascot - 2:30 pmCathy Come Home16/1Bet365Ascot - 3:05 pmTwilight Jet8/1Bet365Ascot - 3:40 pmCemhaan16/1Bet365Ascot - 5:00 pmFresh Hope6/1Bet365🔗 Share Your Predictions on Social Media
