Rangers-Padres prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, July 28

The Texas Rangers (60-43) and the San Diego Padres (49-54) will begin a three-game series on Friday, July 28. First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego, California is set for 9:40 p.m. ET, with the game airing on ESPN+. Texas will start Dane Dunning (8-3, 3.18 ERA), while San Diego counters with Joe Musgrove (9-3, 3.25 ERA).

The Padres are the -165 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rangers are the +140 underdogs, and the run total is set at 8.5.

Rangers-Padres picks: Friday, July 28th

Injury report

Rangers

Day-to-day: SP Nathan Eovaldi (rest), C Jonah Heim (wrist)
Out: RP Josh Sborz (biceps), SS Corey Seager (thumb)

Padres

Out: SP Michael Wacha (shoulder), OF Preston Tucker (foot)

Starting pitchers

Dane Dunning vs. Joe Musgrove

Dunning will take the mound for the 23rd time this season, making his 15th start. He has been solid for Texas this season, but goes into this start after getting rocked. Dunning allowed five earned runs on seven hits in just three innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He walked two and struck out one on the way to earning his third loss.

After starting the season on the IL, Musgrove will be making his 17th start of the year. He has been his usual dominant self throughout the season, but is coming off a mediocre outing. Musgrove allowed three earned runs on seven hits over six innings against the Detroit Tigers. He struck out six and walked one, but took his third loss of the season.

Over/Under pick

The Rangers have scored at least eight runs in three of their last four, while the Padres have scored four runs or fewer in three of their last four. Dunning should be in line for a bounceback performance and if Musgrove is his usual self, the under should hit.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

Texas is 2-4 in its last six games while San Diego is 3-3 over that span. The Rangers did look good scoring 13 runs in the final game of their series against the Houston Astros, but may be missing siwtch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim for this game. The Padres lost two of three to a bad Pittsburgh Pirates team. Even with Joe Musgrove on the mound, I have to go with Texas picking up a win on Friday.