Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Texas Rangers (60-43) and San Diego Padres (49-54) begin a 3-game series in San Diego on Friday. First pitch at Petco Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Padres won all 3 games in 2021

The Rangers have lost 4 of their last 6 games allowing over 8 runs per game over that stretch. Texas is 15-14 during interleague play this season. The Rangers lead the AL West by 2 games.

San Diego returns home after losing 2 of 3 games to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Padres have lost 3 of its last 4 games and are 5-5 in the last 10. San Diego is in the bottom 10 of the MLB in runs scored at home and are 26-25 at Petco Park on the season.

Rangers at Padres projected starters

RHP Dane Dunning vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Dunning (8-3, 3.18 ERA) will make his 15th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 102 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K in a 16-3 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday
• Has never started against the Padres
• 2023 away splits: 3-2, 2.79 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 15 ER), .240 OBA in 11 games.

Musgrove (9-3, 3.25 ERA) will make his 17th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 91 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 3-1 loss at the Detroit Tigers Sunday
• Last start vs Rangers: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 10 K in a 3-0 road victory on April 9, 2021
• 2023 home splits: 5-1, 3.40 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 19 ER), .230 OBA in 9 starts

Rangers at Padres odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:04 a.m. ET.

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Rangers at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Rangers 3

AVOID.

This is a pretty even matchup and I don’t see a clear advantage either way. Both teams are struggling coming into this game, but both pitchers are having good seasons. If you’d like to take a shot on the Rangers with the plus odds, I’m not going to fault you. Personally, I’ll avoid this bet and look toward the total.

PASS.

I’m going to pass on these bets for the same reasons as above. I don’t love the odds either way and I like the total better.

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BET UNDER 8 (-105).

Dunning has an under 3.50 ERA on the road and Musgrove has an under 3.50 ERA at Petco Park on the season. Musgrove has not allowed more than 3 ER in a game in his last 10 starts. This game will stay under 8 runs with 2 quality pitchers starting.

Also, the Padres have been Under this total in 3 of their last 4 games.

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