Rangers vs Astros Odds, Prediction Today

Rangers vs. Astros Game 1 Odds

The ALCS kicks off on Sunday evening as the Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers in Game 1.

Two divisional rivals, Houston won nine of the 13 meetings between these two clubs this season.

Let's preview Game 1 of the ALCS between Houston and Texas and make an Astros vs. Rangers pick.

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Left-hander Jordan Montgomery takes the mound for Texas and should be a good candidate to back in this contest. Through 32 starts in the regular season, he posted a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

We can buy low a bit here on Montgomery as he got roughed up a little in his ALDS start against the Baltimore Orioles, allowing four earned runs in four innings. However, he also threw seven scoreless frames against the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card Round.

In fact, prior to that start against Baltimore, Montgomery allowed one or fewer runs in each of his previous five outings. There were six or fewer total runs scored in four of those five games.

His underlying metrics aren't the strongest, but he still ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, Chase%, BB%, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a bounce-back performance from Montgomery in this spot, given his track record against Houston over the past half-decade.

Over his past four starts against the Astros, the left-hander is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. There were six or fewer total runs scored in three of those four outings.

A good pitching duel could therefore be in store as right-hander Justin Verlander takes the mound for the Astros. Verlander posted a 13-8 record with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 27 starts, just continuing to add to his already Hall of Fame resume.

This success continued into his lone postseason start thus far as the right-hander tossed six shutout innings while only allowing four hits against the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS. Like Montgomery, Verlander also ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, Chase% and BB%.

Also like Montgomery, Verlander possesses a terrific track record over the past half-decade against tonight's opponent. Over his past nine starts against Texas, the right-hander is a commanding 8-0 with a 1.55 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.

There were seven or fewer total runs scored in five of those nine matchups.

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Rangers vs. Astros

Betting Pick & Prediction

Despite a likely pitching duel, we are catching this total at 8.5. That is a product of each of these two lineups, which are unsurprisingly among the best in baseball.

However, Houston has not fared nearly as well against left-handed pitching over the home stretch of the campaign, which should help limit the damage. Since September 1, the Astros rank 14th in the league in OPS when facing left-handers, which is a steep drop from their second-place ranking against right-handers over the same stretch.

Meanwhile, I trust Verlander to, at the minimum, not get lit up by a very deep Rangers lineup.