Ranking Big Ten football teams by 2023 national championship odds
With most spring games having taken place, we’re into the doldrums of the offseason yet again. There is nothing of note to really look forward to across the board until Big Ten media days in July. So, for now, we’re living in prognostication land, where any team could suddenly rise up, or the rich could get richer — or anything could happen.
With that in mind, DraftKings has every single team’s national championship odds listed, from the odds-on favorite (it should be no surprise that that’s two-time winner Georgia) to the lowliest of teams in college football (sorry to Don Brown and UMass). Here is how each Big Ten team ranks in terms of national championship betting odds.
Odds: +100000
2022 record: 1-11
Thoughts:
Let’s face it, if the Wildcats win the national championship, it would be perhaps the biggest turnaround of any school, anywhere, ever, especially since it would have meant turning around from having one win in-conference to winning the conference. Still, Northwestern played in the conference championship game as recently as 2020, so it isn’t that far removed from success. But it might as well be.
Odds: +100000
2022 record: 4-8
Thoughts:
It isn’t happening, especially as Rutgers really can’t even get to middling in its own division. But some modicum of improvement wouldn’t be out of the question this year.
Odds: +100000
2022 record: 4-8
Thoughts:
After playing a pass-happy game in 2022, IU is probably back to looking a little more traditionally like a Big Ten team. It’s now a few years removed from beating Michigan and Penn State and challenging Ohio State for divisional supremacy, and it’s hard to envision it will get back any time soon.
Odds: +50000
2022 record: 8-5
Thoughts:
Honestly, this is far too low. The Terps are a team on the rise with a head coach and offensive coordinator who have won a national championship as assistants (at Alabama) and have a starting quarterback who is beyond proficient and sometimes borders on elite, Taulia Tagovailoa. If everything comes together, Maryland could make a run.
Odds: +30000
2022 record: 8-5
Thoughts:
Despite losing QB Tommy DeVito and RB Chase Brown and cornerback Devon Witherspoon, as well as defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, this feels like a little bit of a slap in the face to what Bret Bielema has accomplished in a short time in Champaign. Will Illinois win the national championship this year? No, but it deserves more respect than some of the other teams listed ahead of it.
Odds: +20000
2022 record: 5-7
Thoughts:
You never know what you’re gonna get from a Michigan State team year-to-year, but given the downward spiral of last year mixed with there being no notable roster additions that would make you think that MSU is going to take a big step forward, it seems pretty far-fetched that the Spartans will contend for anything of note this season. But, that was the prevailing thought in 2021 and they made a New Year’s Six bowl and lost just two games all year.
Odds: +20000
2022 record: 9-4
Thoughts:
Given the losses of QB Tanner Morgan and running back Mohamed Ibrahim, it tracks that Minnesota would be in the middle of the pack in the conference and among the bottom in the nation in terms of national championship odds.
Odds: +20000
2022 record: 4-8
Thoughts:
Nebraska is really getting a bump here from Matt Rhule, but let’s face it, the Huskers haven’t been anywhere close to contending for a while, and it’s shocking they’re listed this high in the odds.
Odds: +20000
2022 record: 8-6
Thoughts:
On the surface, you may look and see that Purdue played in the Big Ten championship game last year and see it as a team on the rise. With the losses of quarterback Aidan O’Connell and head coach Jeff Brohm, it’s primed for a step back. Brohm was an offensive-minded head coach and with defensive-minded Ryan Walters taking over, the Boilermakers are primed for a potentially painful transition this year.
Odds: +20000
2022 record:
Thoughts:
Could Iowa contend for a divisional championship? Certainly. It’s wide open in the Big Ten West and with the additions of Cade McNamara and Erick All, it’s not impossible to see the archaic offense at least excel in ways it hasn’t the past two years. But there are some big defensive losses — such as linebacker Jack Campbell — and it’s nearly impossible to see the Hawkeyes winning the conference, let alone everything.
Odds: +6000
2022 record: 7-6
Thoughts:
Again, the division is wide open, but there will be a transitory period with Luke Fickell’s takeover and the schematic shift expected offensively. Wisconsin could improve record-wise, but enough to win it all seems far-fetched.
Odds: +2500
2022 record: 11-2
Thoughts:
If Penn State manages to put it all together, it would not surprise anyone in the national media. The Nittany Lions have been projected to do just that for the past six seasons. Yet, James Franklin is 1-8 against Ohio State and 3-5 against Michigan. He manages 10-plus win seasons with regularity, but he has not yet beaten both divisional foes in the same year. Granted, he doesn’t have to. He just has to beat one and hope one beats the other — and then hope for the best in the postseason.
Odds: +900
2022 record: 13-1
Thoughts:
Michigan is fourth in the overall odds, yet somehow too low here. With the fifth-most returning talent in the sport and eyes on getting past the College Football Playoff semifinal, this very well could be Michigan’s year.
Odds: +700
2022 record: 11-2
Thoughts:
Ohio State is really living off of name credibility here, and deservedly so overall. But, after two straight losses to Michigan, which cost the Buckeyes the Big Ten championship, they aren’t the king of the conference at this precise moment. 2023 looks maybe a little hairy. For the first time in a while, there isn’t an heir apparent to the departing quarterback. Other personnel losses — such as those along the offensive line — are cause for concern. Yes, OSU will still be really good and among the upper echelon of the conference, but is it national championship good? Especially third overall? That remains to be seen.
