Raptors picks and props vs. Warriors March 1: Bet on a high-scoring game in Toronto

The surging Golden State Warriors visit the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Golden State is 12-3 over its last 15 games but I'm staying away from a side and targeting the total instead. The over looks like a strong pick for this matchup, as well as a play on Jonathan Kuminga.

NBA oddsas of 12:18 p.m. ET on 03/01/2024.

Raptors picks vs. Warriors

[Best Bet]: Over 236.5 points (-110)

The Warriors have gone under this number in four consecutive games. But they did eclipse it three straight before that and are on a back-to-back tonight. 

They also didn't arrive in Toronto until this morning, so extra fatigue is bound to plague them. The bet here is that the team's top-five defence in February, in terms of defensive rating, is not sharp tonight.

In Golden State's 12 games on zero rest days, the over has cashed eight times (per Team Rankings).

And no one will mistake the Raptors for being adept at getting stops. Toronto finished February with the NBA's worst defensive rating. 

The team has scored 120-plus points in all four games out of the all-star break and its opponents have gotten to that number in five of the last six. The Raptors have blown past this total in three straight and four of their last five.

Zooming out further, the Raptors are seventh in the NBA at cashing overs. Golden State ranks just outside the top 10.

This has all the ingredients for a shootout, like the first meeting between these teams this season. 

Key stat: Toronto and Golden State combined for 251 points in January.

Quick pick

Kuminga over 27.5 PRA (-104): I like targeting young guys with big roles when a team is on a back-to-back. Kuminga checks those boxes.

Kuminga's recovery time should theoretically be better than some of his older teammates. And, as we all know, veterans sit all too often for load management under these circumstances.

The 21-year-old has smashed this number in back-to-back games and has cleared it in three straight. He has some added upside with Andrew Wiggins out indefinitely.

Kuminga had some up-and-down moments in February but finished the month with averages of 18.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists (27.3 PRA). He averaged 28.8 PRA in January.

Over those two months, Kuminga cleared this line in 15 of 26 games and averaged 30 minutes a night.