Raptors vs. Bucks picks and odds: Bet on Toronto’s offence to stay hot

Riding a three-game win streak, the Toronto Raptors head to Fiserv Forum tonight to face the Milwaukee Bucks.

The pregame narrative: By its standards, Toronto is off to a high-scoring start in the month of March. We’re leaning into that trend, taking the over on the Raptors’ team total while looking for loads of points in a game-wide sense, too.

NBA odds as of 9:45 a.m. on 03/19/2023.

Raptors vs. Bucks picks

Best Bet: Over 234 points (-115)

The Raptors are 4-4 this month, with both a loss to the lowly Wizards and a win over the West-leading Nuggets in that span.

In some respects, you could say this team is all over the place right now. But one trend has come through nicely, and that’s a nice stretch of overs.

The over is 7-1 for Toronto this month, hitting in each of the team’s past four games. Offensively, the Raptors are in a much better place right now than usual, with a 54.7% effective field goal rate in March (compared to 51.7% on the season).

And this month, Milwaukee just so happens to be one of the hottest offensive teams. The Bucks have a 120.0 offensive rating through nine games in March, which ranks fourth in the NBA.

Milwaukee has cleared this total in six of its past nine games. Also, the over is 23-12 this season when the Bucks are home favourites.

Putting it all together, these teams should put up another big total tonight.

Key stat: When the Raptors and Bucks last played in Milwaukee, on Jan. 17, they hit the over with a total of 252 points.

Quick picks

Raptors +10 (-121): The Raptors are playing a road back-to-back while the Bucks are coming off two days’ rest, which helps explain the vast expanse of the spread.

To us, all that provides is a nice opportunity to back the Raps at a sizeable number. Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its past nine games, covering this spread in eight of those matchups — missing by one point in the loss.

Milwaukee has only covered this number twice in its past eight games, and both of its victories against Toronto this season came by single digits.

Raptors over 112.5 points (-112): In the interest of backing offence, this is a fair number to predict Toronto will clear.

The Raptors have cleared it in five of their past seven games, and they’re averaging 115.5 points per game this month. The Bucks, meanwhile, have allowed opponents to score 121.0 points per game in March and clear this line in seven of nine matchups.