Raptors vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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23 February 2024

Our NBA betting picks identified Immanuel Quickley as a Raptor who stood to improve coming out the break last night, and Andrew Caley wasn't disappointed. He's going right back to the well with Quickley facing a poor Hawks defense.

The Toronto Raptors came out of the All-Star break firing on all cylinders as they blew out the Brooklyn Nets at home last night. But will the Raps be able to keep that level of play going for the second straight night when they visit Trae Young and a well-rested Atlanta Hawks team?

The NBA odds don’t really like the Raptors' chances playing in a back-to-back, with the Hawks laying a "touchdown" at home.

Can Toronto keep this one close, or will Atlanta’s rest advantage be too much to overcome? I break down this Eastern Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Hawks on Friday, February 23.

Raptors vs Hawks odds

Raptors vs Hawks predictions

We got the best version of the Toronto Raptors in last night’s game against the Brooklyn Nets. They shot and moved the ball well, they didn’t turn it over at a high rate, and they played solid defense.

The result was a 121-93 win in a game where the Raptors were favored by just 1.5 points. The fact that they were playing the Nets certainly helps, but it goes to show that when things are working for the Raps, they should be able to hang with and beat any non-playoff caliber team.

That’s the category the Atlanta Hawks fall into, and I’m not sure if they should be 7-point favorites in this matchup.

Atlanta has some great players like Trae Young and Dejounte Murray but it is a flawed team, particularly on the defensive end of the floor. The Hawks defense stinks, as they have the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

The Hawks have a lot of problem areas but none worse than on the perimeter. Atlanta ranks 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and allows the fourth-most made 3-pointers per game. So, that has me thinking containing a red-hot Immanuel Quickley could be a problem.

It appears the All-Star break did Quickley some good because he came out firing last night, going 5-for-8 from beyond the arc. He is now shooting nearly 41% from 3-point range on 6.5 attempts per game as a member of the Raptors.

Quickley sat out the last meeting against the Hawks back on Jan. 28 but the Raps went 15 of 31 from deep as a team in that game. He has also hit three or more 3s in nine of his 21 games as a Raptor. At solid plus money, Quickley is a great bet to do so once again.

My best bet: Immanuel Quickley Over 2.5 made 3s (+115 at PointsBet)

Raptors vs Hawks same-game parlay

Immanuel Quickley Over 2.5 made 3s

Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 rebounds

Jalen Johnson Over 3.5 assists

I want to pair Quickley’s 3s prop with a couple of Atlanta NBA player props. Let’s start with Murray.

The Hawks do-it-all guard is averaging 21.4 points with 5.3 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game. The Raptors have been pretty bad on the boards for a while now, ranking 27th in rebounding rate since Jan. 1. Add Over 5.5 rebounds for Murray, who’s gone Over this number six times in his last 11 games.

Let’s round this same-game parlay out with a Jalen Johnson prop.

Johnson is having a breakout year, putting up 15.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto’s defense hasn’t been pretty and they're allowing the sixth-most assists per game this season. Johnson had just two assists in his final two games prior to the All-Star break but was averaging 4.7 in the 10 games prior, going Over 3.5 assists seven times over that stretch, including dishing out five dimes in that last meeting against the Raps.

Guard rebounds, forward assists? It will make sense, I swear.

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Raptors vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference matchup as 6.5-point road underdogs, which makes sense. That was the closing line for when these two teams met in Atlanta back on Jan. 28.

However, the Raptors probably should have won that game, losing 126-125 on a buzzer-beater. And while Toronto’s struggling defense will have a tough time slowing down this Atlanta offense, these teams aren’t as far apart as you may think. The Raptors rank 26th in net rating since Jan. 1, but the Hawks rank just 24th over that span.

The line has since moved even more in favor of the Hawks, now sitting at 7.5 with the news that RJ Barrett is questionable to play.

I get that the Raptors are in a tough spot playing their second game in as many nights, but this Hawks defense will keep them in it. I’m leaning toward taking the points with Toronto as a road dog here.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 245, and that’s where it remains as of early Friday afternoon. That is a whopping 5.5 points higher than the closing total of that Jan. 28 meeting. But since we saw 251 points in that game, you knew an adjustment was incoming.

These are two capable offensive teams with poor defenses. I would either look at the Over or stay away.