Ratings predictions: Elite Eight, XFL, more

Ratings predictions for the men’s Elite Eight, plus women’s tournament games, the XFL and more. With the men’s tournament short on familiar names, how will the remaining games fare?

As brackets go bust, will the ratings follow?

The NCAA men’s basketball tournament always produces its fair share of upsets and underdog stories, but by the time you get to the final eight, the field is usually dominated by familiar names. The ideal mix at this point would consist mostly of top seeds and former finalists, plus one or two mid-majors and a double-digit seed Cinderella. Not so this year, as UConn, Texas and Gonzaga are the only recent Final Four teams left in a field otherwise dominated by upstarts. As much as the tournament is prized for its unpredictability, the bracket can only be so busted before it starts to take a toll on the ratings.

At this point, the best-case scenario for CBS is Kansas State against one of UConn, Texas or Gonzaga for the title — not exactly what network executives would have imagined at the start of the tournament. By comparison, last year’s final pit bluebloods Kansas and UNC, following a semifinal in which UNC overcame its greatest rival Duke. (Recall that CBS did not benefit from last year’s field, as the Final Four and title game aired on TBS.)

Ratings predictions for the Final Four and title game can of course wait a week. In the meantime, it goes almost without saying that ratings and viewership should decline for the Elite Eight. Game quality can make up for what are on paper less-than-stellar matchups, but these will have to be truly great games. Perhaps they will be.

On Saturday, TBS gets the best matchup of the weekend on paper as UConn faces Gonzaga. Even a great game between these now-traditional powers will be hard-pressed to match Duke-Arkansas last year, which carried the potential of being Mike Krzyzewski’s final game (10.34M).

NCAA men’s basketball tournament West regional final: #4 UConn – #3 Gonzaga (8:49p Sat TBS). Prediction: 7.78M.

Leading into Saturday’s nightcap is a matchup few would have ever imagined at the start of the season, Kansas State against Florida Atlantic. Viewership for FAU’s Sweet 16 win over Tennessee soared two-thirds over Houston-Arizona last year, so it would not be fair to characterize the Owls as inherently a ratings drag. Nonetheless, this is as non-traditional a matchup as it is possible to get at this point of the tournament, and it is hard to imagine viewership measuring up to Villanova-Houston in the same window last year (7.10M).

NCAA men’s basketball tournament East regional final: #9 FAU – #3 Kansas State (6:09p Sat TBS). Prediction: 5.93M.

Creighton and San Diego State are decently familiar mid-major teams that viewers are no doubt accustomed to seeing on the March Madness stage, just not this late in the tournament. In the same window last year, Kansas’ rout of Miami averaged 9.50 million. Even a close game this year will have a hard time matching that lofty number.

NCAA men’s basketball tournament South regional final: #6 Creighton – #5 San Diego State (2p Sun CBS). Prediction: 7.05M.

The late Sunday window of Elite Eight weekend is typically the most-watched basketball game outside of the Final Four or NBA Finals in a given year. Perhaps that will be true again this year, but this year’s matchup seems better suited for the gridiron than the hardwood. Even making its second-straight men’s Elite Eight — and the Elite Eight on the women’s side — Miami is still considered nationally to be a football school. Texas is also a football school, albeit with a more established basketball tradition.

In this same window last year, North Carolina’s rout of 15 seed Saint Peter’s drew 13.6 million viewers, finishing fourth for the year among basketball games (college or pro) — and that was actually a relatively low figure. Go back a bit further and the numbers — and matchups — are stronger: 16.2 million for Michigan State’s upset of Zion Williamson and Duke in 2019, 15.4 million for a Kansas-Duke thriller in ’18, 15.5 million for a North Carolina-Kentucky thriller in ’17, and so on. Almost always some mix of Duke, North Carolina, Kansas or Kentucky. Miami-Texas sticks out like a sore thumb.

It seems almost impossible that viewership will measure up to those past matchups. It may require a good game just to get to the ten million mark.

NCAA men’s basketball tournament Midwest regional final #5 Miami – #2 Texas (5p Sun CBS). Prediction: 9.49M.

Is UConn still TV’s top dog in the women’s game?

The state of women’s college basketball is immeasurably stronger now than it was when UConn was truly dominant, as evidenced by the number of storylines and familiar names left in the field. There is Iowa and Caitlin Clark, arguably the best player in the sport. There is Louisville and Hailey Van Lith, LSU and Angel Reese, underdog Miami and its social media famous Cavinder twins, and of course the defending national champion South Carolina and its star Aliyah Boston. About a decade ago, there was Breanna Stewart-led UConn and not much else (Notre Dame had an undefeated season in that stretch and promptly got blown out by UConn in the national title game).

It is simply common sense that the more stars and contenders in a sport, the better off it will be — and it does not seem to be a coincidence that viewership has been trending upward all season.

This weekend will provide an interesting data point as to whether UConn is still the biggest draw in the sport. The Huskies get the weekend’s lone ABC game, a 4 PM ET start against Ohio State on Saturday. One would think that the combination of UConn, ABC and a late afternoon start would result in the largest audience of the weekend. Given the depth of the women’s game now, it would not be shocking if Louisville-Iowa — airing in a cushy Sunday night slot on ESPN — won out instead.

— NCAA women’s basketball tournament Greenville region 1 semifinal: #4 UCLA – #1 South Carolina (2p Sat ESPN). Prediction: 1.39M.— NCAA women’s basketball tournament Seattle region 3 semifinal: #3 Ohio State – #2 UConn (4p Sat ABC). Prediction: 1.62M.— NCAA women’s basketball tournament Greenville region 2 final: #9 Miami – #3 LSU (7p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 1.68M.

— NCAA women’s basketball tournament Seattle region 4 final: #5 Louisville – #2 Iowa (9p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 1.82M.

Expect ABC games to mark respite for XFL

No matter how the ratings shake out, the XFL reached an important point Saturday with the kickoff of Seattle-Orlando. The third iteration of the league has now lasted longer than the second, the much-hyped 2020 reboot that was called off after five weeks due to circumstances beyond its control. In addition to marking the start of a milestone sixth week, Seattle-Orlando also marks the league’s return to broadcast television for the first time since week one. The ABC exposure is sorely needed for a league that last weekend averaged fewer than 300,000 viewers across ESPN, ESPN2 and FX. Do not expect particularly big numbers for ABC’s two games this weekend, but they will be some of the best numbers this league has seen in a bit.

XFL: Seattle-Orlando (1p Sat ABC) & San Antonio – Arlington (3p Sun ABC). Predictions: 782K and 658K viewers.

Additional predictions

NHL: Capitals-Penguins (8p Sat ABC). ABC has primetime NHL action for a second-straight week as the Crosby-Ovechkin rivalry is renewed yet again. Last week’s primetime Penguins-Rangers game had 901,000 viewers, up from last year though below some of the network’s afternoon windows this season. NCAA Tournament competition no doubt made the difference and will likely do so again this weekend — though the Elite Eight matchups figure to attract fewer viewers than last weekend’s second round games. Prediction: 1.01M.

NASCAR Cup Series: Circuit of the Americas (3:30p Sun FOX). Viewership has declined for each NASCAR Cup Series race this season, and there is no reason to expect anything different for this weekend’s outing at Circuit of the Americas. Last year’s race had 3.73 million. Prediction: 3.14M.

PGA Tour/WGC Match Play, finals (2p Sat & Sun NBC). Not counting the early January Tournament of Champions, which mostly airs on Golf Channel, the PGA Tour’s “elevated events” this season have thus far been a ratings success. Expect that to remain the case for the final rounds of the WGC Match Play, with the caveat that the match play format can weaken even a strong-looking field. Last year’s third and final rounds averaged 1.81 and 1.97 million on NBC. Predictions: 2.05 and 2.23M.

— NBA All Star Game. Prediction: 6.54M; result: 4.59M
— NASCAR Daytona 500. Prediction: 8.98M; result: 8.17M
— XFL Week 1: Vegas-Arlington. Prediction: 2.48M; result: 1.54M
— XFL Week 1: Orlando-Houston. Prediction: 1.43M; result: 1.14M
— XFL Week 1: St. Louis-San Antonio. Prediction: 2.00M; result: 1.57M
— XFL Week 1: Seattle-DC. Prediction: 1.07M; result: 918K
— PGA Tour at Riviera, third and final rounds. Predictions: .2.26M and 2.91M; results: 2.84M and 3.42M
— NBA All-Star Saturday Night. Prediction: 4.42M; result: 3.42M
— NHL Stadium Series: Capitals-Hurricanes. Prediction: 1.22M; result: 1.14M