2023 Nell Gwyn Stakes Trends: Stats To Find Newmarket Winner

Sports Lens

18 April 2023

2023 Nell Gwyn Stakes Trends: Stats To Find Newmarket Winner

Use our Nell Gwyn Stakes trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. Last year, the race winner, Cachet, also went onto win the 1,000 Guineas that season, so whichever horse wins Wednesday’s Newmarket feature race should be noted through the year.

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Nell Gwyn Trends to Help You Find the Newmarket Winner

We’ve looked back at the key trends from the last 19 runnings of Wednesday’s feature Newmarket contest – the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes – on the second day of their Craven Meeting.

The Frankie Dettori-ridden Coppice is the likely favourite for the 7f race, that is also a decent trial for the 1,000 Guineas.

Dettori, who is riding in his last season, will also be looking for his eighth win in the Nell Gwyn.

Over the years we’ve seen two Nell Gwyn Stakes winners go onto land the second Classic of the new flat turf season, including last year’s winning filly Cachet.

What Date & Time Is The 2023 Nell Gwyn Stakes?

��Time/Date: 3:35pm (Wednesday 19th April 2023)
��Racecourse: Newmarket
�� Purse/Winner: £45,368
�� TV: ITV4 / Racing TV

95% Of Nell Gwyn Stakes Winners Were Having Their First Runs of The Season

A big trend to start with that has seen 18 of the last 19 Nell Gwyn Stakes winners landing this race on their first outing back from a break.

Yes, most will fit the bill here with the new flat turf season having only just started, but two of the third three in the betting – Fairy Cross and Girl Racer – would fall down here.

Fairy Cross was in action only at the end of February at Meydan (2nd), while Girl Racer was introduced by trainer William Haggas only last month, when winning well at Wolverhampton.

Lady Bullet is the only other runner that’s been on the track in recent weeks.

Look Out for A ‘Top Three’ Finish Last Time Out

Next up is to look for a recent ‘top three’ finish. 14 of the last 19 Nell Gwyn Stakes winners ticked this Newmarket stat and we can hopefully rule out several more.

The main four in the betting – Coppice, Fairy Cross, Girl Racer and Inner Space are all fine having finished in the top two last time. However, Small Oasis, Barefoot Angel, Frankness, Sweet Harmony, Dubai Jemila and Lady Bullet all fall down here.

We can also look for horses that won last time out, with 9 of the last 19 Nell Gwyn winners supporting this trend. The last time out winners in the field are Coppice, Girl Racer, Inner Space, Karsavina, Mammas Girl and Secret Angel.

Nell Gwyn Stakes Favourites Have a Good Record

What about the Nell Gwyn Stakes favouites? Well, they’ve not got too bad a record with 37% of the last 19 winning.

We’ve also seen 13 of the last 19 market leaders placed in the race in recent times. It will be a shock if the Frankie-ridden Coppice isn’t going off as the favourite in Wednesday’s race.

63% Of Winners in The Last 19 Runners Came From The Top Three In The Betting

The market is often a great pointer to the winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes too – 12 of the last 19 winners could be found in the first three in the betting.

If this trend is to continue in 2023, then the winner will come from Coppice, Girl Dancer or Fairy Cross (as the betting stands at the moment).

Frankie Dettori Loves to Win The Nell Gwyn Stakes

As we all know, this is the last season riding for Frankie Dettori – so, it goes without saying, he’s going to be wanting to win everything!

He’s on the likely favourite here in Coppice, who is currently @ 7/1 with the best horse racing betting sites for the 1,000 Guineas next month.

Frankie also has a top record in the Nell Gwyn Stakes – he’s won the race a staggering seven times and more than any other jockey in the history of the race.

Trainer John Gosden Is Respected

The John Gosden yard also has to be respected in the Nell Gwyn Stakes. The stable has won the race five times in total, with the first of those coming way back in 1999 with a horse called Valentine Waltz. While the most-recent Gosden winner in the race was Daban in 2017.

Frankie has ridden three of the five Gosden Nell Gwyn Stakes winners. Gosden has Coppice and Inner Space in this year’s race.

Sir Henry Cecil remains the winning-most trainer in the race with 8 successes.

Nell Gwyn Stakes Trends: The Last 19 Runnings

See below our in-depth Nell Gwyn Stakes trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these Newmarket stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.

18/19 – Were having their first run of the season
16/19 – Had won between 1-2 times previously
14/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Had only won over 6f or 7f before
13/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/19 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley)
9/19 – Had won over 7f before
9/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race in the past
8/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (won it 7 times in all)
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas
No winner from stall 1 in the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

Nell Gwyn Stakes Recent Winners

2022 – CACHET (15/8 fav)
2021 – SACRED (6/1)
2020 – Cancelled (Covid)
2019 – QABALA (100/30 fav)
2018 – SOLILOQUY (4/1)
2017 – DABAN (12/1)
2016 – NATHRA (5/4 fav)
2015 – OSAILA (4/1)
2014 – SANDIVA (7/2 fav)
2013 – HOT SNAP (10/1)

Nell Gwyn Handicap Betting Odds

See below the latest 2023 Nell Gwyn betting odds that you can use at the best horse racing betting sites. We’ve listed the top 8 in the betting, from the 15 runners.