Rays vs. White Sox prediction, odds: Dylan Cease tries to help Chicago end skid

We have a Rays vs. White Sox prediction as Chicago now looks to snap a seven-game losing streak. The White Sox are 1-9 in their past 10 games, and you have to go back to April 18 to find their last win on the schedule.

Initially, it looked like Chicago just needed to find the right manager to spur this White Sox team to victory. However, after replacing Tony LaRussa, Pedro Grifol seems overwhelmed with the position.

According to Spotrac, Chicago ranked 10th in free-agent spending with $90 million and finished 15th in total spending with $117.8 million. Overall, it has the 12th-highest payroll at $183.8 million.

Things are going from bad to worse on the South Side for the Pale Hose, and I think we still have a long way to go before we see any improvement.

Moneyline: TBR (-148) vs. CHW (+126)

Spread: TBR -1.5 (+112) vs. CHW +1.5 (-136)

Total: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)

Rays ML -148

Rays — Shane McClanahan (4-0, 1.86 ERA) vs. White Sox — Dylan Cease (2-0, 2.73 ERA)

The Rays swept the White Sox earlier this season, and now McClanahan and Cease will face off again after both pitchers received a no-decision in Tampa Bay’s 4-3 extra-inning victory.

In fairness, Cease has been good for Chicago, as he’s yet to suffer a loss while posting a 2.73 ERA. However, he could be a candidate for regression based on his advanced metrics.

According to FanGraphs, Cease has a 3.68 FIP with a 3.95 xFIP. While those numbers are certainly higher than his traditional ERA, they’re still pretty decent.

But the issue that tends to crop up with Cease is his command. He has a career 4.04 BB/9 ratio; this year, that number is up to 4.44.

As a result, it’s unlikely that Cease will be economical with his pitches and last deep into the game. In his four starts this season, he’s completed six innings just once.

In his start against Tampa Bay, he didn’t even come out for the fifth inning after throwing 101 pitches.

If Cease has to hand the ball over to this White Sox bullpen early in the game, things could get even more problematic. Chicago’s relievers rank 28th with a 6.09 ERA.

In contrast, the Rays have the best bullpen in baseball, with a 2.49 mark.

The teams’ offenses are also night and day. Tampa Bay has a league-best wRC+ value of 144, while Chicago ranks 26th with a below-average mark of 82.

There are plenty of red flags with the White Sox, and I see no reason to remove them from my list of teams to fade.

My model makes Tampa Bay closer to a -170 favorite, so I’ll swallow the juice and back the Rays on the road in this spot.