Red Sox-Orioles prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, September 28
The Baltimore Orioles (99-59) enter their Thursday night game with the Boston Red Sox (76-82) with a chance to make history, as the Orioles would clinch the American League East crown with a win. They’ll send Dean Kremer (12-5, 4.25 ERA) to the mound, while the Red Sox will counter with Chris Sale (6-4, 4.42 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m.
The Orioles are -142 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Red Sox are +120 underdogs. The total is set at 7.5.
Red Sox-Orioles picks: Thursday, September 28
Injury report
Red Sox
Out: INF Luis Urias (calf), 1B Triston Casas (shoulder), RP Joely Rodriguez (hip), SP James Paxton (knee)
Orioles
Out: RP Felix Bautista (partial right UCL tear)
Starting pitchers
Chris Sale vs. Dean Kremer
Sale, who is looking to clear the 100-inning plateau for the first time since 2019, is coming off a five-inning shutout start against the White Sox. Sale’s looked solid in September, as he’s allowed one run or less in three of his four September starts. That said, the only start where he allowed more than one run was a six-run, four-inning clunker against the Orioles three weeks ago. Sale has a 3.80 ERA in 118 1/3 career innings against Baltimore.
After putting together a solid 2022 campaign, Kremer has taken a bit of a step back this season, as his ERA is nearly a full point higher than last season. A lot of that can be traced back to his rough September (4.67 ERA after having a 2.37 ERA in August). Kremer’s only made two starts against the Red Sox this season, allowing five runs in three innings on April 1 before surrendering four runs in 5 2/3 innings on April 24. He has a 7.52 ERA in 32 1/3 career innings against Boston.
Over/Under pick
The over is the way to go. Sale and Kremer are solid pitchers, but both offenses have hit well off them in the past. This number is way too long considering those track records.
Pick: Over 7.5
Moneyline pick
Baltimore clinches the AL East. They threw a raucous party at Oriole Park at Camden Yards after they clinched a playoff spot, but that’ll look like a tiny event compared to tonight’s party.
