Red Sox Wild Card odds: Breaking down how Boston can make a run at a playoff spot

It’s been a frustrating August for the Boston Red Sox so far, punctuated by a 10-7 loss to the Washington Nationals on Thursday night that dropped their record for the month to 7-7 — including a disappointing 6-4 mark over a 10-game stretch against the Nats, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. It was a golden opportunity for Boston to make some hay in a very crowded AL Wild Card race, but with six weeks to go in the regular season, Alex Cora’s crew still finds themselves looking up a playoff spot.

Still, Chris Sale, Trevor Story and Garrett Whitlock are finally back healthy, and we saw over the month of July just how dangerous this Red Sox team can be when they’re firing on all cylinders. In a league without any overwhelming favorite, Boston still has as much upside as just about anyone — if they manage to make it to October. So, what will that postseason push require? How likely is it that the Red Sox turn things around? Let’s break down where the standings sit and what the road ahead looks like.

Red Sox 2023 AL Wild Card odds

Yes, Boston isn’t playing very good baseball right now. The rotation is still in flux, with James Paxton, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta coming down to Earth a bit, Tanner Houck on the IL and Sale and Whitlock still knocking off the rust after extended injury absences. The lineup, more importantly, has gone into the tank of late, with Alex Verdugo in the doghouse, Story still getting his feet under him and Masataka Yoshida slumping. And the teams directly in front of them have been hot of late, particularly the Astros and Mariners.

If there’s a silver lining here, though, it’s that the AL Wild Card race is far less cluttered than its NL counterpart. The Guardians have punted on 2023, while the Yankees and Angels are ostensibly competing but have shown scant few signs of life of late. The Rays and Astros have seemingly banked enough wins to lock down the top two Wild Card positions, which turns this into a three-team race — with Toronto, Seattle and Boston battling it out for the third and final spot. The Red Sox currently trail Toronto in that race by three in the loss column, with Seattle heating up in August:

The schedule won’t do Boston any favors, though; the Red Sox are slated for the seventh-toughest slate in the league from here on out, with a combined opponents’ winning percentage of .506. That’s partly a product of their division: Boston is set to play the Rays and Orioles a combined 12 times between now and the end of the season. But there are also 10 games remaining against the Rangers and Astros, three against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and another three against the Jays. The Mariners (.502), by contrast, check in at 14th, while Toronto (.497) checks in at 20th.

Again, Boston isn’t lacking in talent. A lineup of Rafael Devers, Justin Turner, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Story, Yoshida and Verdugo is more than deep enough, while the returns of Sale, Whitlock and eventually Houck give them plenty of rotation depth. Most of the names above, though, have underachieved of late, and it’s going to take a major turnaround to conquer their remaining schedule and make up ground against two very tough teams.