Red Wings vs Blues Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

12 December 2023

Red Wings vs Blues Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Patrick Kane's performance with the Red Wings hasn't lived up to expectations, and according to Neil Parker, the betting odds may be giving excessive weight to the 35-year-old's historical success. Read more in our Red Wings vs. Blues betting picks.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Red Wings and St. Louis Blues are both looking to snap three-game losing streaks when they hit the ice at the Enterprise Center on Tuesday.

This is a tough schedule spot for a Red Wings that is already missing several impact players due to both injury and suspensions. They’re playing their third game in four nights, and are coming off being run over 6-3 by Dallas on Monday.

With St. Louis having the luxury of being off since Saturday and sporting a solid 7-4 record on home ice, it all adds up to the Blues being a home favorite in the latest NHL odds.

I’m turning my attention to the available NHL player props, and expect the busy schedule to catch up with veteran winger Patrick Kane on Tuesday.

Here are my free NHL picks for the Red Wings vs. Blues on Tuesday, December 12.

Red Wings vs Blues odds

Red Wings vs Blues predictions

Patrick Kane is being overvalued by prop markets. The latest addition to the Detroit Red Wings checks out as nothing more than a complementary scorer at this stage of his career, and Kane is mispriced to find the scoresheet based on my numbers.

Make no mistake, the St. Louis Blues are a doormat defense, but I’m approaching this matchup in a one-game vacuum. The Red Wings are in the noted tough schedule spot and will be without forwards Dylan Larkin (upper body), David Perron (suspension), and J.T. Compher (undisclosed).

As a result, the Detroit attack will be easier to match up against, and I also haven’t been impressed with Kane. He’s been on the ice for just 1.9 expected goals at five-on-five while also failing to drive possession (47.1 Corsi For percentage) — albeit in a small three-game sample.

Still, 23 of Kane’s 58 points (39.7%) dating back to last season have come on the man advantage, and the Blues have taken the fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5 in the NHL.

Even though St. Louis checks out with the 31st-ranked defense in my ratings, the price is wrong on Kane's points prop.

My best bet: Patrick Kane Under 0.5 points (+120)

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Red Wings vs Blues same-game parlay

Patrick Kane Under 0.5 points

Blues moneyline

Red Wings Under 3.5 goals

St. Louis has a healthy lineup, and I’m expecting the Blues to capitalize on their favorable home-ice spot Tuesday. This is a winnable game against an opponent missing key cogs and playing with less rest.

Additionally, Detroit has a dose of statistical correction coming. The Red Wings rank second in 5-on-5 team shooting percentage (10.8%) and 10th in team SV% (.922) to sit third in PDO (1.029). Those are all unsustainably high marks reinforcing that Detroit has overachieved to this point.

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Red Wings vs Blues moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This moneyline has consistently moved in the Blues direction at bet365. It opened with St. Louis priced at -125 and is now listed at -135 as of Tuesday afternoon. I would expect buyback on Detroit if sportsbooks test the number at -140 or lower, so I think we’ve arrived at a happy medium.

Both the Red Wings and Blues are anything but defensive stalwarts, so it isn’t surprising to see this total juiced to the Over. Still, it’s held steady at 6.5, and I don’t anticipate that changing ahead of puck drop.