Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs prediction: NHL odds, picks, best bets

The NHL Global Series continues Friday afternoon with an Original Six matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings in Stockholm, Sweden.

The Maple Leafs come in riding a two-game winning streak, while the Red Wings played a wild contest with the Ottawa Senators in Stockholm on Thursday. 

Toronto is a -170 favorite for this rare weekday matinee. 

Toronto and Detroit both traveled to Sweden with the same record (8-5-2), but those identical records need very different context.

For the Wings, getting off to an 8-5-2 start is a big win.

Detroit was not expected to make much noise this season and most projections had them as the seventh-best team in the Atlantic Division, but Derek LaLonde’s side seems well on its way to proving people wrong. 

Just like last season, the Red Wings look most comfortable playing low-event hockey.

Detroit may not create a ton of scoring chances, but the trade-off is that the Wings don’t surrender many quality looks either.

And unlike in 2022-23 when the Red Wings struggled to score all year, this version of the Wings has some scoring punch thanks to the arrival of Alex DeBrincat and a terrific start from Dylan Larkin.

Unlike the Red Wings, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a chaotic bunch in 2023-24 and their 8-5-2 start can be seen as a bit of a disappointment given their sky-high expectations.

For the past few seasons the Leafs were among the best defensive clubs in the NHL, but things have taken a turn so far this campaign.

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Toronto allows the seventh-most high-danger scoring chances and eighth-most expected goals at 5-on-5 in the league, but the Buds have enough playmaking talent that they can score their way out of trouble.

It’s a tricky way to play, but the Leafs are still finding ways to win more often than not. 

That said, trying to provide cover for a leaky defense will always make you a vulnerable favorite.

Toronto may have the talent to overwhelm Detroit, but there’s a chance that the Wings are able to defend well enough and keep themselves in this contest long enough to create enough scoring chances for themselves against an inconsistent blueline and goaltenders.

The Bet: Red Wings (+150, FanDuel)