Rice vs. No. 11 Texas college football odds, trends: How long will Quinn Ewers keep Arch Manning on Longhorns bench?
Arch Manning was arguably the most hyped quarterback recruit in history, but the nephew of two-time Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli Manning will not be the starting quarterback for No. 11 Texas on Saturday when the Longhorns open their final season in the Big 12 with a non-conference game against in-state little brother Rice. Texas is a 35.5-point favorite on the SportsLine consensus with Quinn Ewers under center.
Manning, the No. 1 overall recruit in the Class of 2023 per sister-site 247Sports, isn't even assured of being the backup as he's competing with Maalik Murphy, the No. 197 national recruit in the Class of 2022. Murphy redshirted as a true freshman last year.
Ewers was the No. 1 overall recruit in the Class of 2022 and originally committed to Ohio State because he got a huge NIL deal from the Buckeyes. He never played in Columbus and last year at Texas was named the Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year by the league's coaches. Ewers played in and started 10 games, completing 172-of-296 passes (58.1%) for 2,177 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions despite missing three games with a sprained clavicle. His passing yards were the fifth-most for a Texas freshman QB and the TD passes were the fourth-most in a season for a Longhorns freshman.
Oddsmakers make it pretty clear they think this is Ewers' team, as he's among the Heisman Trophy favorites at +1500, while Manning is way down at +8000 at DraftKings. The site also gives over/under season totals for Ewers: 2950.5 passing yards and 24.5 TD passes. Perhaps ideally, Ewers would all season and then leaves for the NFL, and the Horns can redshirt Manning and have him for at least the first two seasons in the SEC starting in 2024.
Offshore book BetOnline was offering a prop on when Arch Manning would get his first start:
- Game 1-3 +200
- Does not start +250
- Game 11-12 +300
- Game 7-10 +300
- Game 4-6 +350
If Saturday is a blowout, which seems likely, Manning could see some action as Horns coach Steve Sarkisian likely would want to Ewers out ASAP ahead of a trip to Alabama next week. Texas has won 43 of the past 44 against Rice and 15 straight. The teams last met in 2021 and Texas won 58-0. The Longhorns averaged 47.7 points in the past nine meetings. Texas has won four straight season openers by an average of more than 20 points, putting up 48.5 points per game in them.
Rice is 1-30 over the past 25 years against AP Top 25 teams, with the lone win being a 20-0 effort at No. 15 Marshall in 2020. Texas would be the highest-ranked opponent Rice has beaten since 1991 (No. 8 Baylor). The Owls have lost 14 straight non-conference road games, last winning in 2014 at Army. Saturday is Rice's first game as a member of the AAC.
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