Texas vs. Washington College Football Playoff odds preview, predictions, and best bets

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The long wait for the College Football Playoff semifinal games is over, and Washington holds a flawless 13-0 record but is more than a field-goal underdog tonight against 12-1 Texas.

The Superdome in New Orleans hosts the second CFP game of the day, which promises to give the Longhorns a colossal fan-attendance advantage. In its final season with the Big 12, Texas is making its College Football Playoff debut after trouncing Oklahoma State 49-21 in the conference championship.

When star RB Jonathon Brooks suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11, there was concern over how the Longhorns’ offense would perform. Those worries were short-lived, as CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue, and Keilan Robinson have done a splendid job of replacing Brooks’ production.

With Quinn Ewers surpassing 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns and UT’s defense ranking 13th in points allowed and fourth in rushing yards surrendered, the Longhorns are arguably the most well-rounded team in the CFP.

Washington has drawn TCU comparisons due to the Huskies winning many tight games in the second half of the year, but the Huskies deserve more respect from fans and oddsmakers. Washington plays with as much physicality as any team in the country, a tag not typically associated with Pac-12 programs.

The Huskies’ aerial attack is number one in the nation, thanks to Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. and the unstoppable pass-catching duo of Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. Washington’s offense is also dominant in the trenches and earned the Joe Moore Award for the most outstanding offensive line in college football.

As an underdog, head coach Kalen DeBoer is 4-0 straight up at Washington and 7-1 against the spread in his career.

Even after beating Oregon in the regular season, the Huskies were massive underdogs in a Pac-12 Championship rematch with the Ducks and managed to come out on top. Washington’s offense was overly reliant on the passing game early on, but RB Dillon Johnson and the rushing attack have progressed nicely.

Johnson averaged 136 yards and scored eight touchdowns in the Huskies’ previous five games. If Washington can move the ball against Texas’ top-ranked rushing defense, it will open things up through the air, and UT is 96th in passing yards surrendered.

Backup QB Maalik Murphy has already left Texas in the transfer portal and won’t be available in the CFP. Ewers has dealt with injuries in his two seasons in Austin, and if he goes down vs. Washington, Arch Manning is the next man up.

Manning is a five-star recruit who projects to have an outstanding college career, though he appeared in only one game, and looking to him to step up in Texas’ biggest game in over a decade would be less than ideal for the Longhorns.

Odunze’s 1,428 receiving yards are the third-most in FBS, and he’s been stellar time and time again in Washington’s biggest games of the year. Against Michigan State, Oregon, Utah, Oregon State, and Washington State, Rome averaged 124 yards.

Penix will look to Odunze early and often on Monday night, and with one of the most experienced QBs in the game delivering the ball, we expect the Nevada native to surpass his receiving prop.

With only 10 sacks given up, Washington’s o-line does a fantastic job of protecting Penix.

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