Fair odds: Virtual 2-horse Lecomte favors 1 horse’s speed

Eight horses were entered in the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds, but based on my fair odds, a quarter of the field has a 77 percent chance of winning.

This Kentucky Derby 2024 points prep is not quite a two-horse race between Nash and Track Phantom, but their fair odds as a couple entry would be shorter than 2-5.

Will there be value on one or the other? Based on their morning lines, possibly. Nash is 5-2 in the program with 9-5 fair odds, while Track Phantom is 9-5 on the morning line with 7-5 fair odds. At those prices, each offers value, but I expect Nash to be favored. 

He was 1-2 last out against Track Phantom and five others, and I think the public will give him a pass since he failed to be near the lead early and had to make a big middle move to get into contention.

I see that as an indictment, though, and indicative that Track Phantom is just the faster animal. The outside post is a small concern, but based on the prices I think they’ll be, Track Phantom is the play to repeat.

Because our prices are so short on either Nash or Track Phantom winning, we’re pretty long on everyone else. I think the only three scenarios in play are no one offers value, Nash is overbet and Track Phantom offers value, or Track Phantom is over bet and Nash offers value. In other words, I see no path that anyone but Nash and Track Phantom are worth a bet in this race, and maybe no one is.

From a multi-race standpoint, the Lecomte ends the card and an all-stakes Pick 5. I have not handicapped the preceding races, but my thought is to single Track Phantom on the main ticket. Any tickets that can involve non-favorites and second choices can close with the two obvious ones in the Lecomte.