Rockets vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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10 March 2024

Rockets vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Rockets have fallen victim to slow starts when they hit the road and the Kings should be ready to take advantage in their own gym when the two face off tonight. We break down the first-quarter spread and more in our NBA betting picks below.

The Houston Rockets are desperately trying to stay within reach of the play-in, currently five games behind the 10th seed.

Their road record of 7-24 this year has been their most glaring detriment, and on Sunday, they'll look to improve that record against the sixth-seeded Sacramento Kings who are desperately trying to stay out of the play-in.

Can the young and promising Rockets put together a composed Sunday effort to keep their playoff hopes alive? Or will Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox keep the Kings' heads above play-in water?

Rockets vs Kings odds

Rockets vs Kings predictions

This may be hard to believe, but if the Houston Rockets could play every game from home they would be one of the league's best. They're the ninth-best team by net rating in home games and rank third in defensive rating in that split.

Obviously, that's not how the NBA works and Houston's struggles on the road are well documented. Only the Pistons and Wizards — two teams with just 10 wins total to their name this season — have fewer wins than the Rockets' seven this year.

Maybe they're a little better on the road than their abysmal record would suggest. They're still at least 22nd in net rating and average margin in road games. That's not great, but it's certainly still better than tied-for-third-fewest-road-wins bad.

What they are truthfully awful at though is not getting off to a slow start. Their -3.9 average first-quarter margin on the road is the third worst in the league. Compare that to their +1.1 average second-half margin — the ninth-best mark in the league.

Their slow start problem has been especially bad in the earlier start of Sunday games, having gone 2-5 in first quarters and losing by an average of 6.4 points in those five first-quarter losses.

The Sacramento Kings, on the other hand, are rather decent at starting a game off strong — at least from home. In that split, they rank 11th at +1.6. There's also a little more juice here for Sacramento to come out swinging, as they dropped the two previous games against the Rockets earlier this season.

My best bet: Kings first-quarter -2 (-112 at DraftKings)

Rockets vs Kings same-game parlay

Kings first-quarter -2

De'Aaron Fox Over 26.5 points

Alperen Sengun Under 21.5 points

Another area in which Houston has struggled has been limiting opposing point guards from scoring. Their 25.3 points allowed per game to the position is the eighth-highest mark on the season, suggesting De'Aaron Fox could have a big game.

That may especially be the case given that Fox missed the home-and-home pair of games on November 6 and 8. He's also been on a tear of late, averaging 31.9 points on 51.7% shooting in the last eight games — including two 40-point performances.

Conversely, the Kings have been nails at defending opposing centers, as their 20.3 points allowed to opposing centers is the third fewest in the league. That may be a splash of cold water onto the red-hot Alperen Sengun, who has been one of the Rockets' brightest spots in the last two years.

His point prop is set at 21.5 for Sunday, yet he managed to score just 17 and 15 points in the aforementioned pair of games against the Kings earlier this season.

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Rockets vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

Houston's 33-28-2 record against the spread this year is good for the fifth-best cover rate on the season at 54.2%. However, as one can imagine, that record is massively skewed in home and away spits.

In home games, their 21-10-1 ATS record is the second best in the league from a cover rate standpoint. On the road, however, they are 12-18-1 (40.0%) — tied for the fourth-worst mark.

The Kings are just above average against the number this year at 31-30-1. And despite a solid 17-11 SU record at home, they're just 11-17 ATS — good for the fifth-worst mark in that split.

The Rockets are 33-28-2 to the Under this year, putting them just inside the top ten in terms of Unders. Today's total of 234 definitely leans towards the higher end of totals they see, and in games with a total at or above that mark, they've gone 5-3 to the Under.

Sacramento's 32-27-3 O/U is good for a 54.2% Over rate which is the fourth highest in the league. At home, they get even more score-friendly: their 19-8-1 O/U record (70.4%) is 10% higher than the next-best mark.

Rockets vs Kings betting trend to know

The Rockets have only cashed the first-quarter moneyline in 10 of their last 38 away games (-16.60 units / -40% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Kings.

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