Royal Ascot day two tips: 10/1 Rogue Millennium can strike
Our tipster Jones Knows has some big-price selections to attack on the second day of the Royal meeting.
Queen Mary Stakes (2.30)
With the extra places on offer from Sky Bet - they are paying six - this looks a great opportunity to have a confident each-way punt on Karl Burke's talented filly, who looks the best horse in the race yet is trading at a bigger price than you'd usually expect for such an impressive debut winner. I loved the way she travelled and put a competitive field to bed at Nottingham on debut - a performance backed up by the clock. Backing such professional two-year-olds at Royal Ascot that are trained by talented handlers is a great long-term betting strategy. She'll go close.
Duke of Cambridge Stakes (3.40)
Nine of the last 10 winners of this contest were given patient hold-up rides over this stiff track mile, so having a horse that stays further and can be ridden quietly is a must. This has led me to the chances of the Tom Clover runner, who has been completely disregarded by the market despite bringing a very hot piece of form from the Middleton Fillies' Stakes at York, where she was only narrowly put away by the exciting Free Wind.
That horse could take some stopping in the Hardwicke Stakes on Saturday and also she was a cosy winner at York, Rogue Millennium actually traded at 1.60 in-running which suggests it wasn't as comfortable as Frankie Dettori made out in the saddle. A repeat of that run at a track which will suit her galloping style, will see her go very close in substandard renewal of the race.
My confidence is enhanced by the booking of Danny Tudhope in the saddle - a man whose patient style is seen to maximum capacity over Ascot's straight track. In races over seven furlongs and a mile on the straight course, Tudhope boasts a very healthy 33 per cent win and place strike-rate with 11 winners ridden from 105 runners. A huge overperformance on market expectation.
Hunt Cup (5.00)
In terms of a piece of strong form, Ghaly's win at the back end of last season at Newmarket could not be working out better. He swatted aside King Of Conquest into second that day and that horse has since won three races, shooting up 20lbs in the handicap. Meanwhile, the fifth, Rebel Territory went onto win the Victoria Cup whilst eight of the nine horses behind him that day to have run since have all gone onto score at least once, including Revich who bolted up in a valuable Chester handicap at the May meeting.
The trainer is also a dab hand with lightly raced older horses in handicaps. Saeed Bin Suroor works at a 20 per cent strike-rate with horses aged five or more in Class 2 handicaps, outperforming market expectation to very healthy figures. If Ghaly is ready to go, which market forces suggest he is, then he has all the tools required to win this.
It certainly makes sense to have two darts at such a competitive race, especially with Sky Bet offering eight places.
This former Sir Michael Stoute charge revels in this type of big-field handicap, having finished second and fourth in the last two runnings of the Hunt Cup. And the switch of trainers to Daniel and Claire Kubler, who have a great strike rate with new recruits, this horse looks very attractive off his current mark of 99. That was on full show during his eye-catching first run for the stable in a competitive York handicap where despite being badly placed and finding trouble, he stayed on a powerful finishing fourth and was gaining at the line. I like backing horses who stay further than a mile for races over this course and distance and Astro King is guaranteed to hit the line hard on all known form.
Queen's Vase (5.35)
It's not often you can back a last-time-out Aidan O'Brien winning three-year-old at Royal Ascot at a juicy each-way price, so we must take advantage. The Frankie Dettori farewell vibes are having an overbearing affect on these Royal Ascot betting markets - as seen with favourite Gregory here. He looks a very progressive stayer for John Gosden but the Cocked Hat at Goodwood is never a deep race and although he was strong at the line, he was very wayward and green up the straight.
This is a big step up and he is a favourite to take on up against some well bred rivals. None more so than Peking Opera, who is the sole runner for the O'Brien yard. They've landed this race seven times since 2007 and saddled seven seconds on top of that. The son of Galileo showed strong staying vibes to land a Listed contest at Naas on his last start, overcoming being badly positioned in a slowly run race to win. With further improvement to come, it's hard to see this likeable sort being out of the frame.
