Rugby World Cup betting tips: Semi-finals preview and best bets including Argentina v New Zealand
Rugby union betting tips: Saturday October 21
England v South Africa
1pt England (+6.5) on the first half handicap at 19/20 (Sporting Index)
1pt over 0.5 drop goals in the match at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Having been written off by so many, including myself, ahead of this World Cup, England go into this semi-final as the only unbeaten side in the tournament.
Despite that unbeaten record, England still line up as sizeable 13-point underdogs, something that is understandable given the contrasting paths of the two teams to this point of the competition, South Africa having already shown their credentials. Firstly in a narrow defeat to Ireland and then in victory over France in another of last week’s epic quarter-finals, their physical dominance in the last quarter a sight to behold. Having someone like Kwagga Smith to come off the bench was pivotal to how they eventually overcame a side that had won their last 18 at home.
Admittedly, England have not been nearly as convincing, but I believe there are reasons to think they may be better equipped to deal with the SA brand of rugby than the bookmakers believe. I suspect that Freddie Steward would have started this one regardless of Marcus Smith’s fitness, the Leicester man has quite possibly the safest pair of hands under the high ball in world rugby, and that could be a big asset to England given the joy the Springboks had with the high ball against France. Their first two tries came pretty much directly off the back of the French backs being unable to deal with the up-and-under.
It’s no great surprise to see Steve Borthwick go with his two strongest scrummagers from the off, Marler and Cole giving England their best hope of being able to live with the fearsome SA scrum, and whilst that compromises them somewhat in the loose, if England can thwart the set-piece dominance SA have been accustomed to, they have enough talent to more than match them in other areas.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Owen Farrell harness his inner Jannie de Beer in this one, with England adopting similar tactics to the ones that brought them success against Argentina in Round 1, and the 5/2 about there being a drop goal in the game doesn’t look too shabby at all.
Overall, I think England have enough to keep this tight before the South African depth comes into play - the scrum a real concern when Cole and Marler are withdrawn - and think the best bet is for them to cover the 1st half handicap of 6.5 points.
Rugby union betting tips: Friday October 20
Argentina v New Zealand
- Friday, 2000 BST
2pts New Zealand to win (-18) at evens (Sky Bet)
The Pumas sealed a place in the semi-finals for the third time in the past five World Cups with a 29-17 victory over Wales at State Velodrome last weekend, but even that improved effort isn’t enough to think they can match an All Blacks side that look to be peaking at just the right time. At this point a repeat of the third-placed finish they secured in France 2007 looks to be the best they can hope for.
Those who place a lot of store in recent head-to-head records will point to Argentina’s 25-18 win on New Zealand in 2022 as cause for optimism, but the All Blacks have repaid them on each of the occasions they’ve met since, most recently with a 41-12 victory in Mendoza, and Michael Cheika’s side have looked someway short of their best on the whole this World Cup.
Whilst the Pumas limped through the weakest group in the competition, New Zealand were gradually coming to the boil in Group A. Caught cold to a degree by the hosts on the opening game of the tournament, New Zealand have done nothing but impress since that defeat, sealing their spot in the semis with victory over Ireland in one of the finest games the World Cup has ever seen.
The sheer power and pace of the All-Black attack has been a sight to behold in recent weeks, scoring a whopping 41 tries in total, and with the gulf between the top four sides in the world and the rest looking as pronounced as it has been for some time, I was surprised to see the handicap line as low as 18 for this one.
On all recent evidence it’s hard to come up with one area in which Argentina hold the edge here, and with Santi Carreras preferred to the more reserved Nicolas Sanchez at ten, I suspect they could well play into the hands of New Zealand. Therefore I’m more than happy to be backing the Kiwis (-18) at even-money.
Posted at 2130 BST on 19/10/23
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