Rugby World Cup Final predictions, odds and betting tips
After eight weeks of intense action the 2023 Rugby World Cup is all set to conclude with a titanic battle between the reigning champions South Africa and the greatest rugby nation of them all, New Zealand.
Both teams have won the RWC a record three times each so Saturday’s final at Stade de France in Paris not only represents the chance to prove current dominance, but also the opportunity to assert historical pre-eminence.
As such, we’re surely set for a final for the ages.
South Africa were superb in the quarter finals, breaking the hearts of the French team and fans before they squeezed past a resilient England in last week’s second semi final. The All Blacks, meanwhile, trampled all over Argentina in the last four having downed a superb Ireland in the last eight.
Nor is their clash the only action to look forward to - we’ll also cast an eye over the 3rd/4th place play-off between England and Argentina.
Let’s see how the bookies see the final weekend of action.
Featured promo for South Africa - New Zealand
🏆 Tournament odds
Here are the latest tournament winner odds from bet365:
- South Africa: 13/10
- New Zealand: 10/13
- Draw: 20/1
The ruthless nature of the All Blacks defeat of the Pumas, plus the sluggish display by South Africa last weekend, has seen New Zealand assume favouritism. It’s important to consider these tournament or to lift the trophy prices because the match itself could be a draw.
The 3rd/4th Place Play-Off: England vs Argentina odds
Here are the latest match odds for England vs Argentina from bet365.
- England: 1/3
- Draw: 28/1
- Argentina: 13/5
Our pre-tournament picks
We tipped South Africa at 7/2 so if you followed us consider adding New Zealand to cover the stake or lock in a profit. In the top tryscorer market we picked out the All Black Will Jordan at 8/1 for the win and 2/1 to rank top five. He’s currently leading the stats having crossed the white line eight times. His compatriots Leicester Fainga’anuku and Damian McKenzie are on five while Kiwi scrum half Aaron Smith and South Africa’s Cobus Reinach are on four. No-one else can catch Jordan and it’s highly unlikely anyone will.
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final: South Africa vs New Zealand predictions
This is a really tight one to call. South Africa edge the last five matches between the teams 3-2, but the Kiwis lead 5-4 over the last 10 encounters and 14-5 over the last 20. The two giants of the sport went head-to-head at Twickenham in a RWC warm-up match in August and the Springboks delivered a 35-7 thumping but few expect an exact repeat of that result.
When the two teams have met in the RWC there has been electricity in the air. The first match was in the 1995 final which was drawn before South Africa won in extra time. The Springboks needed just 80 minutes to win in 1999 but in the three RWC games played in the 21st century New Zealand have emerged victorious every time.
Rugby World Cup Final betting tips
💡 Final to be a draw at 20/1 (Spreadex)
Since the world rankings came into existence in this century there has never been two finalists more closely aligned - a mere 1.23 points separates them.
South Africa has the edge and that is good news for those who followed out pre-tournament tip because the team with the better ranking has won four of the five finals (and it was South Africa themselves bucked the trend when beating England four years ago). It’s also the first time both finalists have been rated at above 91 points. In fact, only four of the previous 10 finalists were considered that good.
And what of those head-to-head counts? They suggest the Kiwis have historical dominance but the Springboks have turned it around recently. It really is so tight. Consider, too, that there have been nine RWC finals and two have gone to extra time while another finished 8-7. South Africa have won all three finals they’ve played in, New Zealand have played four, won three and the only one they left bereft? Against South Africa in 1995.
The bookmakers, too, think it will be tight because the handicap is a mere one point. If history, form, stats and bookmakers think it will be tight let’s take the hint and back the draw.
💡 Mark Tele’a anytime try scorer at 11/8 (888sport)
New Zealand are the tournament’s top points scorers, top try scorers and no team has made more clean breaks than them. Their backs are electric with ball in hand and are likely to be again. The South African defence is solid yet, if stretched, Mark Tele’a can take advantage of wide gaps.
💡 Argentina to win at 13/5 (bet365)
The two sides, as always ahead of this consolation match, are saying the right things but it must be a very difficult occasion to rise to. The favourite has won seven of the nine play-offs but one of the exceptions was Argentina in 2007 in France.
Sound familiar? This year’s vintage will want to emulate its nation’s best-ever RWC performance. England has many veterans who know this is a farewell to top class rugby and that could act as an incentive, but it might also become a distraction. England will also be more frustrated off the back of the semi final results than Argentina.
Again, that could prompt a fine performance but it might have left them drained. At the prices, the Pumas are the call.
📺 How to watch the Rugby World Cup Final
Here's where you can follow the RWC action once you place a bet with the best rugby betting sites in the UK:
The Final - South Africa vs New Zealand:
- Location: Stade de France, Saint Denis, Paris
- Date and Time: Saturday, October 28th 20:00
- How to watch: ITV, S4C
3rd/4th Place Play-Off - England vs Argentina:
- Location: Stade de France, Saint Denis, Paris
- Date and Time: Friday October 27st 20:00
- How to watch: ITV, S4C
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