Rugby World Cup Semi Finals predictions, odds and betting tips
The 2023 Rugby World Cup exploded into life last weekend with an exceptional set of quarter finals, but there is plenty of intrigue ahead of the semi-finals as the four teams remaining in France plot to become the world champions.
Has international rugby ever had it so good as on Saturday and Sunday? Four games, each of them intense, all in the balance going into the final five minutes and three of them decided by the final play of the match. It was world class sport at its edge-of-the-seat finest.
Ireland against New Zealand and France versus South Africa were unquestionably epic encounters. The former resembled one of the great world heavyweight title fights of the 1970s and the latter featured a first half of almost ridiculous attacking intent. But Argentina’s defeat of Wales was also thrilling while England were relieved to sneak past the rejuvenated Fijians.
What comes next? It’s possible that the most competitive quarter finals the RWC has ever seen will be followed by the least competitive semi finals in its history. The bookies certainly think so.
Let’s see how they rate the remaining teams, to win both the tournament and their upcoming last four matches.
🏆 Tournament odds
Here are the latest tournament odds from bet365:
- South Africa 10/11
- New Zealand 6/5
- England 12/1
- Argentina 33/1
1️⃣ First quarter final: Wales vs Argentina
The outright market is, and has been, a remarkable one because of the lopsided nature of the draw. Remember that the top five ranked teams in the world were drawn in the same half which meant only two of them could reach the last four. As a consequence the books had very little faith in the capabilities of the teams in the other half and they continue to feel that way.
In fact, Argentina are actually a bigger price to win the tournament now they have reached the semi-finals than when they started the competition! It’s also true that the two teams which led the market ahead of the quarter finals (Ireland and France) have dropped out of the reckoning. The books make this a two-horse race.
Our pre-tournament picks
We tipped South Africa at 7/2 and Argentina each way at 28/1. If you followed us you might consider adding New Zealand to lock in a profit. In the top tryscorer market we picked out the All Black Will Jordan at 8/1 for the win and 2/1 to rank top five. He’s currently tied second on five tries with the leader, France’s Damian Penaud on six, unable to add to his tally.
Our quarter final picks went well, with Argentina winning at 7/4 and South Africa winning in spite of a half time deficit at 13/2. Let’s see if we can add more profit this weekend.
💡 First Semi Final: New Zealand vs Argentina
The rationale behind the pick of Argentina as an each way option was that they A) had a relatively free run to the last four, and B) would likely be facing an opponent that was mentally, physically and emotionally fatigued by a huge quarter final the week before. In essence, both factors have played out exactly as hoped, but if Ireland had won with a last minute try they might have been more vulnerable than the All Blacks. The good news for the underdogs? They defeated New Zealand last year and have won two of the last seven matches between the two teams. The bad news? Historically those are the Pumas’ only two wins in 36 attempts (there was also one draw). The All Blacks will also remember that they have won the last two matches between the teams 53-3 (a week after the defeat last year) and 41-12 (this July).
New Zealand vs Argentina odds
Here are the latest match odds for New Zealand vs Argentina from bet365.
- New Zealand: 1/12
- Draw: 50/1
- Argentina: 17/2
💡 Betting Tip: New Zealand try to be the first scoring play - 2/1 at bet365
If last week is anything to go by Argentina will find it hard to break the All Blacks down. The Kiwis made 229 tackles in their defeat of Ireland, the second highest match tally in the tournament, and they were incredibly disciplined in that sensational 37-phase Irish attack which ended the game.
New Zealand’s attacking stats were also the best of the four teams remaining in the competition. Argentina will be hoping to set a booby trap for their opponents, to utilise their speed at the ruck (the fastest of the semi-finalists) and also hope that New Zealand suffer a hangover following last week’s drama.
The favourites also have form when it comes to making a mess of semi finals. They’ve played eight and won just four which is just wrong for a team which was favourite in all of them. Moreover, two of their three RWC tournament wins were on home soil. So a semi final away from home is as vulnerable as the All Blacks ever get.
But are Argentina good enough to pounce? We’re on them each way so won’t play the match result and instead look elsewhere. The books favour New Zealand to open the scoring with a penalty but they fly from the blocks and historically open the scoring against the Pumas with a try as often as a penalty.
2️⃣ Second Semi Final: England vs South Africa
This match is a repeat of the final in the last RWC held in France when South Africa triumphed 15-6 in 2007. In many ways, the state of the two teams was very similar then to this year: the Springboks were as tournament savvy as ever while England limped their way to the final stages.
Incredibly England are the only unbeaten team remaining in the competition but the manner of their wins (all of them unconvincing) does not stack up to South Africa’s defeat by the Irish which was a tight game between two undoubtedly world class set-ups. This is also a repeat of the last RWC final, in Japan four years ago. England will want revenge but are they good enough to enact it?
England vs South Africa odds
Here are the latest match odds for England vs South Africa from bet365.
- England: 19/4
- Draw: 33/1
- South Africa: 2/11
💡 Betting Tip: South Africa to win (handicap -13.5 points) - 10/11 at 888sport
South Africa’s Cheslin Kolbe was electric last week whether making clean breaks, scoring tries or charging down a Thomas Ramos conversion. He’s likely to be star again but this could be an attritional game, at least early on. Against the French the South Africans were statistically low on carries, line breaks and defenders beaten.
Meanwhile England ranked lowest of the final four in metres made and offloads. South Africa’s pack wore down the French eight and will look to repeat the trick. England will point to having won three of the last five matches between the two sides. It’s the best of the match-ups however.
They’ve actually won only four of the last 15 games and they also trail 4-1 when the two teams face up in the RWC. Let’s agree with the books but take them on in the handicap. In those five RWC matches between the teams South Africa won by 20 points or more three times and they’ve won by 14 points or more in two of the last three matches. Those flying backs could really take advantage if England have to chase the game.
📺 How to watch the Rugby World Cup Semi Finals
Here's where you can follow the RWC action once you place a bet with the best rugby betting sites in the UK:
Semi Final 1 - New Zealand vs Argentina:
- Location: Stade de France, Saint Denis, Paris
- Date and Time: Friday October 20th 20:00
- How to watch: ITV, S4C
Semi Final 2 - England vs South Africa:
- Location: Stade de France, Saint Denis, Paris
- Date and Time: Saturday October 21st 20:00
- How to watch: ITV, S4C
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