Rugby World Cup quarter-final predictions: England advance, Wales out and France beat South Africa
The 2023 Rugby World Cup quarter-finals have been confirmed with England playing Fiji, Wales taking on Argentina, hosts France tackling South Africa and Ireland against New Zealand.
France against the Springboks and Ireland-All Blacks are particularly mouthwatering fixtures. But who will come out on top and secure their place in the last four? Here, we predict the teams who will go through to the semi-finals...
Key contest: Back row
With Taulupe Faletau missing, after the broken arm sustained in Wales’ victory over Georgia, Warren Gatland will be forced into a back-row rejig, in an area that is Argentina’s most formidable. A spanner in the Welsh works is the player-of-the-match performance delivered by Leicester openside Tommy Reffell in the victory over the Lelos. Does Gatland keep the faith with the in-form flanker at No 7 and start sensational captain Jac Morgan at No 8, with Aaron Wainwright at six? Pound-for-pound, that is Wales’ best available back row, but it does somewhat compromise the line-out. Christ Tshiunza of Exeter might be preferred on the blindside for his set-piece nous, or Dan Lydiate’s blend of defensive dynamite and line-out solidity.
Prediction: In a cagey, low-quality affair, Argentina scrape through to the semi-finals by fewer than seven points. It could quite easily go Wales’ way, though.
Key contest: Second row
How often have New Zealand arrived at the quarter-finals of the World Cup as underdogs? Never. Of course, the All Blacks are never truly underdogs, in the sense that a victory over Ireland next Saturday in Paris would hardly be seen as a double-take shock, but Ireland will head into the match as narrow favourites.
If New Zealand are to upset the odds then their second-row pairing – be it Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett or Brodie Retallick – will absolutely have to get stuck into the Irish line-out. South Africa found that Ireland, almost flawless in all areas so far, had a certain fallibility in this set-piece area. To stop Ireland – the most fluid and symbiotic attacking side in the tournament – you have to thwart them at source. Once Andy Farrell’s side are allowed to click through the gears, their ball play is too intricate and harmonious to be persistently repelled.
Prediction: Ireland by five to paint Paris green and send The Cranberries’ royalties stratospheric.
Key contest: Midfield
It is the selection quandary that will dominate this week’s narrative in English rugby circles. Will Steve Borthwick persist with the Ford-Farrell axis, or will one of them start at fly-half alongside two bona fide centres? The closing stages of the nervy victory over Samoa might have given us a snapshot of the England head coach’s thinking, with Owen Farrell at fly-half and Manu Tuilagi and Joe Marchant outside him.
Such a scenario might be a sensible one defensively in the face of a magnificent Fijian centre partnership of Josua Tuisova and Waisea Nayacalevu. Their explosive cocktail of pace, power and panache will cause England problems and only an assured centre pairing will be able to stop it. Of course, dropping George Ford would be incredibly harsh, given how the fly-half stepped up to the plate in Farrell’s absence – including spearheading that victory over Argentina with three mesmeric dropped goals. We know, however, that Borthwick is not afraid to back his instincts and make the tough calls.
Prediction: England to grind the life out of Fiji and win by 10.
Key contest: Gain line
On paper, the game of the weekend. The reigning world champions taking on the hosts and tournament favourites at the Stade de France. One of them will leave the tournament as no more than quarter-finalists. For that not to be the Springboks, they will have to put on a similarly obdurate defensive showing as they did against Ireland in the same stadium last month. It was not quite enough that day, but mirroring that display without the ball – getting off the defensive line and chopping French ball-carriers vigorously – will lay the foundations for a South Africa victory.
That is because the key to France’s attack is getting their big men over the game line. That is not a particularly revolutionary observation, as all of the world’s leading offensive technicians thrive on this, but with France the disparity is starker. When they get their big men over the gain line, with Antoine Dupont dictating and moving the ball swiftly, they are unstoppable. But teams have had success against them over the past two years by stopping that. That is the key for South Africa. France do not like playing on the back foot and, if they can force that, the reigning champions stand a strong chance of victory.
Prediction: France, bulwarked by cacophonous home support, to win by a whisker – but betting would be a fool’s game.
