Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview, and Odds
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The Sacramento Kings, winners of five straight games, travel to Dallas to take on the 9-3 Mavericks on Sunday night. The Kings are starting to resemble the team that won the Pacific Division last season before bowing out in a thrilling series with the Warriors in the playoffs. The Mavericks are hoping to get back to the playoffs after a disappointing season in 2022-23. The opening tap for this Western Conference matchup is scheduled for 7:30 PM EST.
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Streaking into Dallas
The Sacramento Kings improved to 7-4 on the season and 2-0 in the West Group C standings in the in-season tournament with a 129-120 win over the Spurs on Friday night. The win also marked the fifth straight for Sacramento as the team continues to round into form after a slow start. One reason for the slow start was the absence of All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox for several games. Fox is back and healthy once again and proved that with a season-high 43 points against the Spurs. Domantas Sabonis had a double-double with 27 points and 14 rebounds in the game as well.
“I’m not one of those guys that are like, ‘I think it’s dumb,’ because I don’t,” Fox said. “I think it could be interesting for this league. Like I said, almost every league in the world does some type of in-season tournament, so I think it’s cool that the NBA is trying to implement it.”
The Kings come into this game on a five-game winning streak and the offense that was so prevalent last season is bouncing back. They have moved up to 10th in the NBA in points per game while still struggling from the floor. The Kings are just 23rd in field goal percentage and 24th in 3-point field goal percentage. The Kings rely heavily on the three-point shot as part of their offense, with 42% of their points coming from long range. Defensively, they are 18th in the league in points allowed per game and are just 24th in 3-point defense. The Kings are 13th in the league in total rebounding.
Key Injuries: C Alex Len and PF Trey Lyles are out.
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Mavs Finding their Groove
The Dallas Mavericks were one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA last season after failing to make the playoffs despite a midseason trade that brought in guard Kyrie Irving to pair with Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have come out determined this season to erase all the doubts surrounding last year's team. Heading into Saturday night's matchup at the Milwaukee Bucks, the Mavs are 9-3 on the season. On Wednesday night, the Mavericks went into Washington and took down the Wizards 130-117. Doncic led the way with 26 points and 10 assists while also grabbing seven rebounds in another all-around effort. Tim Hardaway Jr. had a huge night with 31 points including seven 3-point field goals. The Mavs won despite the absence of Irving, who sat out with a sore foot.
“The left foot’s bothering him. It’s sore,” Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said pregame of Irving, who played 26 minutes in Tuesday’s loss. “So we’re just not going to take any chances.”
*Article written before the completion of Saturday's Mavericks' game.
The Mavericks have gotten to nine victories thanks to stellar play on the offensive end. They are second in the NBA in points per game. They are sixth in field goal percentage and second in 3-point field goal percentage. The Mavs have relied heavily on their three-point shooting, with 38% of their points coming from beyond the arc. The Mavericks have struggled on the defensive end this season. They are just 25th in points allowed per game, 28th in opponent's field goal percentage and 20th in 3-point defense. The Mavs are also just 23rd in total rebounding.
Key Injuries: PF Max Kleber is out. G Kyrie Irving is questionable.
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The Kings come streaking into Dallas looking very much like the team that caught the NBA by surprise last season. Head coach Mike Brown has built this team in the image of the Warriors, a team he was an assistant coach with for several seasons. Fox, like Steph Curry, can extend the floor, and Sabonis, like Draymond Green, is capable of having the offense run through him. Since Fox has returned to full health, the Kings' offense has been clicking and they have moved up to 10th in the NBA in points per game. The Mavericks, meanwhile, come in without Max Kleber, who has done a good job at spacing the floor, and possibly Irving, who is nursing a sore foot. Without those two, the Kings can focus on Doncic and make other players beat them. The Kings should also have the advantage on the glass in this game which should limit the Mavericks' ability to run. The Mavs come in ranked 15th in the league in fastbreak points but that might be difficult here. I like the surging and rested Kings to take down a Mavericks team in the second game of a back-to-back returning home from a tough game in Milwaukee.
Take the Kings +1.
Prediction: Sacramento +1
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Even with this high total, all signs point to the over in this matchup of two dynamic offenses and subpar defenses. The Mavs will certainly be tired after traveling home from Milwaukee to play the second end of a back-to-back. They will also try to push the pace of play, ranked sixth in the NBA in that category. The Kings should have ample opportunity to light it up from beyond the arc against the Mavs' porous defense. The scoreboard operator should be ready to go in this game.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 246
Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.
