Sam McKewon: Wisconsin football's risky reset mirrors that of Nebraska's
If you look at it from Nebraska’s perspective, Wisconsin football picked one hell of a time to have an identity crisis.
Watching the Badgers eek by the Huskers last November, it was clear that the program had gravitated, if not quite to full mediocrity, within the neighborhood.
UW’s own D possessed its usual stinginess, but the way it bent in 2022 — losses to Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota, the 15-14 win over Nebraska — convinced athletic director Chris McIntosh to not only fire Paul Chryst (who won 72% of his games in Madison) but pass on beloved interim Jim Leonhard, the 2003 Bo Pelini to Chryst’s Frank Solich.
Luke Fickell, who took Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff, was not turned off by McIntosh’s decisions. Times change. So does the money.
Here, then, is Nebraska’s comparison partner. It’s a pretty odd one — UW has won nine straight in the series — but you have two friends, McIntosh and NU’s Trev Alberts, trying to jockey for position in an ever-evolving Big Ten. The Huskers had to change. The Badgers could have coasted, but didn’t.
McIntosh can look at Nebraska and wonder what Matt Rhule might have changed in Madison. Alberts can look at UW and wonder if Fickell — who was a candidate of interest for NU, slotted behind Rhule — would have hired the same veteran staff, leaning, somewhat surprisingly, on a spread passing offense.
Yes, UW will do that — you don’t sign quarterback transfers from Southern Methodist, Oklahoma and Mississippi State if the aim is to go under center 75% of the time. You don’t lure away North Carolina’s offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, either. On paper, it seems a Scott Frost-level miscalculation, or like giving up grandpa Barry Alvarez’s marinara recipe for something zippier.
“Some things happened that obviously he didn’t want to have happen,” Fickell said later to Badgers beat writers. He excels in vague coach speak. “Some bad breaks, tipped balls. But in even in that whole situation, I watched his demeanor and how he handled things. He’s obviously been through a lot. He’s played a lot of football…his maturity is beyond probably anybody else in the program.”
Badger QBs threw five during The Launch, and took 10 sacks. Figuring out the starting offensive line “combination,” Fickell, is one of three to-do items for the summer. The others: Secondary depth and the kicking game.
Like Nebraska defensive coordinator Tony White, Fickell prefers a 3-3-5 scheme, an aggressive approach that will be tested in the burly Big Ten. Minnesota’s giant group of linemen and tight ends will eyeball NU and UW’s defenses and likely try to steamroll them. The Badgers routinely produce the kinds of defensive players Nebraska doesn’t; Rhule, who won with defense at every coaching stop, will change that.
But, as a nine-game winning streak suggests, there’s a gap between the two programs.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, UW is tabbed as the Big Ten preseason favorite at 20 overall with a 47.9% chance of winning the division. That may be tied to the schedule – UW’s toughest road game is at Minnesota — and the addition of Mordecai at quarterback. Minnesota (33) Iowa (37) Illinois (45) and Purdue (50) follow in the Big Ten West rankings, then Nebraska, with Northwestern (67) in the considerable rear.
ESPN’s football analytics predict another losing season for Nebraska. The Football Power Index’s initial preseason ratings have NU at No. 52, the lowest since the 2017 season, when the Huskers were 58, and much different from 2022, when Nebraska was 35 and considered a slight favorite to win the Big Ten West. FPI projected Nebraska to win 7.7 games. The Huskers won four.
Predictive analytics don’t always mean much — at all — but it’s worth noting Nebraska has frequently underachieved in FPI’s predictions. The 2022 team finished 70. The 2021 team finished 29, but only won three games. The 2020 team was predicted to be 22 and finished 44.
At this moment, Nebraska’s roughly what Kansas football was headed in 2004. Not entirely awful — KU averaged four wins per season, 1996-2003- but stuck near the cellar. UW’s where the Huskers were headed into 2004. KU and NU equalized for about five years after Solich was fired. It was, perhaps, the most notable sea change for Husker football — losing twice, in 2005 and 2007, to KU, after winning 36 straight. Nebraska hasn’t rediscovered the recipe for red sauce, either.
On paper, Fickell’s a better hire than Bill Callahan was for NU in 2004. On paper. But it’s worth considering this irony: One of Callahan’s failures at Nebraska was ditching an option offense that worked in favor of, yes, UW’s Big Ten offense. The second failure: Hiring UW’s defensive coordinator to defend the Big 12.
The Badgers just hired an AAC head coach and an ACC coordinator.
Maybe it works fabulously.
Or maybe Nebraska — and a bunch of other Big Ten teams — just got an opening.
