San Diego State vs. Air Force prediction: College football picks, odds

On Saturday, San Diego State goes on the road to face Air Force with the Aztecs catching double-digit points.

I see value with the underdog in this matchup.

San Diego State has dominated the series in recent years, winning nine of the last 10 meetings.

Air Force won 13-3 last season in a defensive slugfest. I see a similar type of game this time around.

One reason the Aztecs have fared well against Air Force is defense.

Some teams play the option well and San Diego State is one of them.

In the last eight meetings, the Aztecs’ defense has held the Falcons to an average of 16.8 points and 188.8 rushing yards.

Most teams would take 188 rushing yards but any time a defense holds Air Force’s vaunted ground game to fewer than 200 yards, it’s a win.

San Diego State’s offense isn’t going to win games but if the Aztecs can limit turnovers and play field position like they did last season, I think we see another lower-scoring game.

Betting on College Football?

San Diego State also has played a much tougher schedule in the first month, facing Ohio, Oregon State, UCLA and Boise State.

Air Force’s toughest opponent was San Jose State.

Air Force is the better team but 10.5 feels like too many. Take the points.

The play: San Diego State +10.5