Air Force Football Preview: Odds, Schedule, & Prediction

Air Force lost just three games all of last season but went 5-3 against Mountain West opponents.

The Falcons had impressive wins, though. That includes their victory over Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl.

But Air Force hopes to have better performances in conference play so the 2023 season ends with a Mountain West Championship this time.

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Air Force’s odds to win the Mountain West are +400, via BetMGM.

Air Force’s win total Over/Under is 8.5, with Under 8.5 and Over 8.5 at -110.

9/2 vs Robert Morris

9/9 at Sam Houston

9/16 vs Utah State

9/23 at San Jose State

9/30 vs San Diego State

10/14 vs Wyoming

10/21 at Navy

10/28 at Colorado State

11/4 vs Army

11/11 at Hawaii

11/18 vs UNLV

11/25 at Boise State

Bold indicates Mountain West contests.

DB Trey Taylor

John Lee Eldridge III wasn’t Air Force’s rushing leader last season, but he’s one of the best Mountain West running backs returning in 2023. He should be a catalyst for the team’s triple-option offense.

Brad Roberts, who led the country in rushing yards in 2022 and is one of the program’s all-time leading rushers, is gone. Eldridge should help replace some of that production. He was 11th in the conference with 766 rushing yards while averaging 7.7 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns.

Haaziq Daniels, one of Air Force’s most winningest quarterbacks, is also gone. He completed 40 of 83 passes for 836 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions while rushing for 695 yards and eight touchdowns on 138 carries last year.

Ben Brittain and Jensen Jones threw a combined three passes last year but are returning quarterbacks for the Falcons. Both are seniors this year.

Air Force’s leading receiver, David Cormier, is also gone. He caught 15 passes for 404 yards and four touchdowns. Amari Terry, who added 187 yards and a touchdown on seven catches, is also gone. 

Dane Kinamon is Air Force’s leading returning receiver. He showed some explosiveness in just three games in 2022, catching two passes for 88 yards and a touchdown.

Air Force, which was first in the country with 326.7 rushing yards per game and allowed the seventh-fewest sacks per game (.92) in the country, returns plenty of experience up front. Left guard Wesley Ndago, center Thor Paglialong, and right tackles Kaleb Holcomb and Adam Karas all started multiple games last season. 

Air Force is going to be strong on defense again in 2023. The Falcons allowed the fewest yards per game in the country with 254.4 and the third-fewest points per game with 13.38. And they return eight of their top 11 tacklers from last season.

Trey Taylor was an All-Mountain West defensive back in 2022. The free safety led Air Force with 69 tackles to go with 4.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, four pass breakups, and a sack.

Payton Zdroik is a first-team 2023 HERO Sports G5 Preseason All-American defensive lineman for the Falcons. He tallied 30 tackles, 10 for loss, as well as 5.5 sacks, three quarterback hurries, and one fumble recovery last year.

Alec Mock, an inside linebacker, was a second-team G5 preseason All-American. He was third on the team with 65 tackles while also recording five TFLs, four quarterback hurries, three pass breakups, one sack, and a fumble recovery.

Camby Goff is another one of Air Force’s best defensive backs who also returns. He tallied a team-high nine pass breakups and three interceptions while adding 42 tackles and a quarterback hurry.

Air Force won’t win the Mountain West title but will win at least eight games in the regular season.

I don’t think the Falcons will quite have the same success as they did last season. But there’s still plenty of talent on this roster.

In their non-conference games, I think they’ll go 3-1. They should defeat Robert Morris at home and win at Sam Houston, and I’m anticipating they’ll split their games at Navy and vs. Army.

That means Air Force would only have to win five games in the Mountain West, which is absolutely possible. I believe the Falcons are better than Utah State, San Jose State, Wyoming, Colorado State, and Hawaii.

While I don’t anticipate they’ll win at Boise State, the Falcons could also win at home against San Diego State and UNLV. Even when accounting for two losses there, that still gives Air Force eight wins for the season.

I ultimately think Boise State will win the Mountain West. But Air Force could certainly give the Broncos issues.