San Diego State Vs. Boise State College Football Prediction And Insights

Boise State was the betting favorite to win the Mountain West going into the season. But after the Broncos’ losses to Washington and UCF and Fresno State defeated two Power Five opponents, that has changed.

Meanwhile, San Diego State is 2-2 after beating Ohio and narrowly defeating FCS program Idaho State while losing to UCLA and Oregon State by double digits.

It’s difficult to gauge just how talented these teams are based on those resumes. Fans will have a much better understanding of the hierarchy in the Mountain West after these two teams clash in San Diego.

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Boise State is a 6.5-point college football betting odds favorite at San Diego State. The Broncos have -250 odds to win while the Aztecs’ odds are at +200. The Over/Under is 45.

After reaching the Mountain West Championship a season ago, expectations were high for Boise State going into this season. Some even believed the Broncos could start with a win over nationally-ranked Washington.

But that never happened. Instead, Boise State is 1-2 overall with only a win over FCS North Dakota and could very well start with a 1-3 record.

The Broncos’ injuries also haven’t helped. They lost wide receiver Latrell Caples for the year before the season even began. Running back George Holani and linebacker D.J. Schramm, two HERO Sports G5 Preseason All-Americans, have also missed time due to injuries.

However, the Broncos have relied on other playmakers in their absence.

Ashton Jeanty is sixth in the country with 146 all-purpose yards per game. The young running back has racked up 202 rushing yards and 236 receiving yards this year.

Boise State wide receiver Eric McAlister has stepped up and added 238 yards and two touchdowns on 15 receptions.

Boise State’s defense has struggled, ranking 110th in the FBS with 427 total yards allowed per game and is tied for 106th with 30.67 points per game allowed.

But is that because the Broncos have faced some highly skilled offenses like Washington and even UND, one of the top FCS offenses? This matchup will be telling.

This San Diego State game might ultimately depend on the performance of quarterback Taylen Green. After a promising season last year, he’s been inconsistent in 2023. He’s thrown for 576 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions on a 53% completion rate. He has also run for 103 yards and a score.

San Diego State was also predicted to be one of the top teams in the Mountain West this year. And the Aztecs have had their own high and low moments already.

They began the year with a Week 0 win over Ohio, a talented MAC program, but the Bobcats were without star quarterback Kurtis Rourke for most of it. Then SDSU barely escaped with a win against Idaho State and lost to two Pac-12 teams.

Jalen Mayden has made some impressive throws as SDSU’s quarterback, but he’s also made some mistakes. He’s thrown for 701 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions on a 60% completion rate while rushing for 193 yards and two scores.

SDSU star tight end Mark Redman leads the team with 179 yards on 16 catches to go with two receiving touchdowns, which were both scored against Ohio. Jaylon Armstead has paced the team with 195 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries.

SDSU has been about as strong on defense as Boise State. The Aztecs are 114th in the country with 439.8 yards per game allowed and 83rd with 25.5 points allowed per game.

SDSU has been much better with creating turnovers, as the Aztecs are tied for first in the FBS with 10 turnovers gained and have a plus-two turnover margin for the season. SDSU safety Cedarious Barfield is tied for first in the nation with three picks so far this year.

Turnovers could end up being crucial in this matchup.

I predict San Diego State will cover the spread at +6.5 but Boise State will ultimately win and the game will go Over 45 total points.

This will be a close game between two evenly-matched teams in my mind, so I don’t think either squad will win by a touchdown or more. But I like the Broncos’ running game just a little bit more, so I think that will be the deciding factor.

BSU will play San Diego State at 10:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN. The game will be played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego.