Saturday analysis of Irish Champion Stakes as Auguste Rodin overhauls Luxembourg for genius Aidan O'Brien
When did it hit you that Aidan O’Brien was going to win the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes?
For many it was before the race, what with the well-backed Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg going off favourite and third favourite. Well done if this was you. For others (including yours truly) it was after a furlong, when the Ballydoyle trio were first, second and third, Alflaila and Nashwa already well off the pace.
We don’t see O’Brien team tactics as much as we used to, but this was a well-executed plan that never looked in doubt after the first 15 seconds of the contest.
Luxembourg had stablemate Point Lonsdale for company and they set a good gallop, last year’s winner clearly in good heart as the market told us he would be beforehand. He ran a belter, and he held on for second, but Auguste Rodin had the perfect sit in third, the run of the race, and as Ryan Moore pulled him out of the leader’s slipstream in the straight there was only going to be one outcome.
“He’s so important for the breed,” an almost breathless O’Brien said afterwards, visibly confirming Auguste Rodin was the one they really wanted to win, his hit and miss CV now having more hits than misses, a 10-furlong Group 1 snugly sitting alongside his other top-level wins over a mile and a mile and a half.
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Quick to praise his most famous team of owners afterwards for risking the horse’s reputation by rolling the dice again, here we have another stallion prospect to stand alongside the rest at Coolmore, the Japanese influence via his sire Deep Impact perhaps a sign of things to come.
But all credit must go to O’Brien himself, of course. His methods and skill have been tested to the limit by this horse, a Guineas blowout followed by Derby success, a King George no-show now followed by an Irish Champion.
Whether getting on a plane is a problem for this horse or not, the evidence is stacking up that good or faster ground looks a prerequisite for him producing his very best. He got away with a Vertem Futurity success on heavy ground at two at Doncaster, but would you back him on softer ground after what we’ve seen from him at three?
I’m not sure I would and that could present a problem ahead of potential autumn targets, in Europe at least. The Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita could be a different matter entirely, though, and that’s where he’s seemingly heading with the Turf already nominated as a potential target.
You wouldn’t expect the ground to be a problem for him at California in November, so the plane ride might end up being the biggest issue after all. He’s 5/1 for the BC Turf with Sky Bet if you think he can handle an 11-hour flight at 40,000 feet.
As for Luxembourg, he looked in fine fettle with a mile and a quarter quite clearly his trip. The son of Camelot has no issues with softer ground and the QIPCO British Champion Stakes at Ascot next month looks the obvious race for him.
Indeed, he could be a bet for that race at a best of 14s and at 12/1 generally. Ace Impact and Auguste Rodin head the betting, but both look unlikely runners and then we have Mostahdaf in as third best and he looks at his happiest on faster ground.
Bay Bridge (8/1) and Adelaide River (33/1) also threw their hats into the Champion Stakes ring with victories on Saturday afternoon, but it’s the back to top form Luxembourg that looks like he’s working his way towards a serious crack at the Ascot highlight for my money.
His part in the 2023 Irish Champion Stakes shouldn’t be forgotten, anyway, for all that the headlines will be about Auguste Rodin climbing off the canvas once again to land another knockout blow.
When all is said and done it was a 12th success in the race for O’Brien, his fifth in a row. So when will it hit us that he’ll win the 2024 renewal of the Irish Champion?
Looking at the potential amongst his exceptional squad of juveniles, of which a couple are on show at the Curragh on Sunday (we’re looking at you, City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow), it’s tempting to say right about now.
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