Pacific Classic fair odds: Value is in middle market at Del Mar

The handicap division has taken its share of criticism this year regarding lack of depth. But other than Whitney Stakes (G1) winner White Abarrio, whom I view as the most likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, all the leaders of the older male division are in Grade 1 action Saturday either in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga or the Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

From a talent perspective, I think there is more of it in the Pacific Classic thanks in part to some big names among the 3-year-old male division taking on older horses. This includes the Haskell (G1) first- and third-place finishers Geaux Rocket Ride and Arabian Knight taking on Arabian Knight’s uncoupled stablemate Defunded among some other good ones.

Indeed, it is those three whom I see as the most likely winners of the $1 million, 1 1/4-mile race Saturday. In aggregate, I give the trio a 52 percent chance of winning this race. This means it’s more likely one of them wins than any of the other eight.

And that’s when the gambling starts.

According to the morning line, this trio will have at least two-thirds of the betting on them, and I expect all three to be underlays individually.

Going into a race knowing you’re going to bet against the top three choices can be exciting. Especially from a multi-race standpoint, being live to no less than the fourth choice on a big stakes day can be very exciting.

I bring up multi-race wagering, because I do think there is some real utility to tossing the obvious in this race. It’s a pari-mutuel game, and I foresee a lot of tickets using some combination of the top three choices.

So my plan is to play the late Pick 5 using only no. 7 Slow Down Andy, no. 8 Señor Buscador and no. 11 Skinner. When it gets to the ninth race, and there is a better sense of the Pacific Classic board via double payouts, I can be ready to adapt from there.