Scotland rein in expectations despite genuine momentum

Even if Scotland do manage a first win over Ireland since 2017 at Murrayfield on Sunday afternoon, then the odds will still be weighted against them clinching their maiden title of the Six Nations era.

Another strong performance in their final match of the campaign at home to Italy on ‘Super Saturday’ would leave Gregor Townsend’s side with an unprecedented four wins from five games played. However, if France win their two remaining matches with something to spare against England away on Saturday afternoon and Wales at home next weekend, and Ireland get the job done at home against England in their final game, then that late Gael Fickou try in Paris a fortnight ago which earned France a bonus point and cost Scotland one could come back to haunt them.

A third-place finish in the championship in such circumstances would be hard to swallow – particularly as Scotland have never before finished higher than the bronze medal position.

Not that this Scotland team are looking that far ahead.

They have been accused of getting ahead of themselves by some critics across the water these last two weeks, which seems harsh, because there is a world of difference between self-belief and arrogance.

They are surely entitled to visualise winning this game and to talk about how they might achieve that goal? Or are they really expected to raise the white flag and apologise in advance for having the temerity to be caught on the same pitch as mighty Ireland?

There has inevitably been some hyperbole from the Scottish press and amongst the team’s supporters after swashbuckling victories over England at a full-house Twickenham (as opposed to the empty stadium of 2021) and Wales at Murrayfield (by a record margin), followed by a gallant defeat away to France. But the players and coaching staff have been at pains to stress in every public appearance that they feel they are on a journey, that there is room for improvement, and that they know they have not really achieved anything yet other than a couple of encouraging one-off results against struggling opposition.

When Townsend took over as head coach back in the summer of 2017, the raw ingredients of a good side were there – which is almost certainly why he pushed Scottish Rugby chief executive Mark Dodson so hard to get the job when he did.

He benefitted from the toughening-up process initiated by his dispossessed predecessor Vern Cotter, and the begun to develop a swagger that we had not seen since the 1990s, largely thanks to the influence of Stuart Hogg (who made his international debut in 2012 and is set to bring up his century on Sunday) and Finn Russell (debut 2014) in the squad.

‘Gallus’ is a Scottish word that best describes that pair’s approach to the game, which could be translated as ‘bold’, ‘cheeky’ or ‘flashy’. 

At last, Scotland had a mindset that wasn’t scared to have a go, but they still didn’t really know how to win tight games – at least not consistently.

In truth, Scotland did get ahead of themselves at the 2019 World Cup, boasting about how well they had prepared that summer and seeming to overlook the fact that Ireland and Japan had not spent the previous three months sitting on their hands.

The 27-3 shellacking handed out by Joe Schmidt’s team on the opening weekend of the tournament left a deep, deep scar that is unlikely to ever heal so long as Townsend and a tranche of senior players who experienced it first-hand are still involved – which is why claims that Scotland are not paying Ireland due deference are well wide of the mark.

Scotland’s biggest psychological hurdle this weekend will not be over-confidence, but the fact that, despite their gallus exterior, they are – deep-down – still intimidated by the challenge they face against the Six Nations team they have their longest losing record against.

As a rugby playing nation, Scotland has huge structural problems in terms of a tiny player pool, a dysfunctional development pathway and no credible long-term strategy for tackling either of those issues, but the top-heavy approach to investment has helped the current national side become far more competitive in recent years than we ever saw during the barren 2000s.

Having said that, there was a definite sense of drift last year, when they managed their now customary win over England at the start of the last Six Nations, but only beat Italy during the remainder of the championship, squandered a 15-point lead in the final Test and therefore the series against Argentina in the summer, and blew hot and cold in the Autumn when Townsend farcically cited form as his reason for leaving Russell out of the training squad before having to bow to reality and recall the maverick playmaker midway through the campaign.

The team lacked identity, with a revolving door selection policy in the middle of the park highlighting the fuzzy thinking over whether the plan was to impose an ambitious attacking game on the opposition or try to contain rivals through resolute defence.

Dropping Chris Harris and restoring the rejuvenated Huw Jones at outside-centre, to form a delicious partnership with Sione Tuipulotu at inside-centre, has set the tone for this championship – giving Russell strike options right across the backline which the stand-off has revelled in utilising.

In the pack, there is an energetic and dynamic back-row, Richie Gray has been totemic in the middle-row (though they’ll miss the suspended Grant Gilchrist’s unseen work and line-out nous this weekend) and the front-row all make big contributions in the loose while just about holding their own in the tight.

Scotland now look like they really understand and believe in the game plan. It’s a start, but Ireland have about 10 years of collective growth on them.

Ultimately, so much still relies on Russell being fit and on form – if that’s the case this weekend then Scotland won’t die wondering. If not – it could quickly become an exercise in damage limitation.

*David Barnes is editor at https://www.theoffsideline.com.