Seahawks vs. Cowboys prediction: NFL odds, picks, best bets
After an unexpectedly hot start to the season, the Seattle Seahawks are in free-fall mode.
They have lost three of four including a home beatdown on Thanksgiving to the 49ers, barely clinging on to a playoff berth.
The same cannot be said for the Dallas Cowboys, who welcome the Seahawks to AT&T Stadium on Thursday night.
Quarterback Dak Prescott has cemented himself as an MVP candidate as the Cowboys have won five of their last six.
Dallas enters as nine-point favorites, and it seems unlikely that Seattle can muster up any fight given the injuries accumulating.
Running back Kenneth Walker hasn’t practiced this week while Geno Smith has played through an elbow injury.
Given the expected negative game script out of Seattle, I am targeting a receiver prop on Thursday night.
No, it’s no DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. I’m going to continue to buy low on rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who showcased his talents with a one-handed grab against the 49ers a week ago.
His current prop sits in the 39.5 (FanDuel) to 42.5 (BetMGM, DraftKings) range. Smith-Njigba has at least 40 receiving yards in six of his last seven games.
He is an explosive slot receiver who can be utilized in many ways.
Over the last two weeks, his average depth of target has been more than 11 yards. The three weeks prior? All under 7.
This is a great matchup for Smith-Njigba, who lines up in the slot about 73 percent of the time.
The Cowboys are known for their dominant defense and elite pass rush.
But as Smith deals with constant pressure, he’ll look to get the ball out quickly, potentially pushing more targets his way.
The Cowboys also play man-to-man at a 36.5 percent rate, third-highest in the NFL.
Their cornerbacks have been elite on the outside, but teams have slowly found the blueprint to move the football downfield against them: attacking slot corner Jourdan Lewis.
On Thanksgiving, the Washington Commanders funneled their targets through Curtis Samuel, who finished with 100 yards on nine receptions.
The week prior, the lowly Carolina Panthers only found success against Dallas through the slot, using Adam Thielen (74 yards, eight receptions).
Lewis has a 46.5 coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus.
He has allowed 40-plus yards in four of the last six weeks, mostly against lesser-talented receivers than Smith-Njigba.
Man-to-man defense also happens to be the scheme JSN finds more success against than zone.
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Smith-Njigba has a 1.93 yards per route run rate against man this season.
That’s just .02 behind Metcalf and nearly a full yard better than Lockett (0.99 Y/RR).
But when facing zone defense, Lockett sees a huge boost (1.79 Y/RR) while Smith-Njigba’s production decreases drastically (0.91).
Since Seattle’s bye in Week 5, Smith-Njigba has slowly carved out a role for himself.
That’s when we saw his projection take a slight increase for the better.
He has seen 5.3 targets per game since Week 6 and his explosiveness has also flashed.
He has a reception of at least 18 yards each week since and 30-plus in three of the last four weeks.
In what should be a pass-heavy Thursday night for Seattle, back Smith-Njigba to continue his production and go over his receiving yards prop in a great matchup against the lowly Lewis.
