SEC projected win totals, best bets from Austin Mock’s model: Is it more than a two-horse race?

The Athletic

01 January 0001

SEC projected win totals, best bets from Austin Mock’s model: Is it more than a two-horse race?

When it comes to college football, one conference stands above the rest in terms of on-field production over the last decade and a half and it hasn’t been particularly close. The SEC has won 13 of the last 17 national titles, including each of the last four. On top of that, an SEC school has lost in the national championship game in three of the four seasons where another conference has come out on top.

SEC bias? That seems unlikely to me. The data speaks for itself and if you’re more of a results-based analysis fan, the results can’t be argued with either. The SEC is on top of college football and heading into the 2023 season, it looks to stay that way.

Four of the top seven teams in my college football projection model hail from the SEC, including the top two. Not shocking to anyone, the two-time defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs hold the top spot. Alabama holds the second spot (somewhat controversially?) while LSU and Tennessee fill in at sixth and seventh.

To further show the SEC’s dominance, as if four of the top teams in the country wasn’t enough, my model projects an SEC team to win the national title 47.5% of the time and honestly, that seems a little low.

No matter how you slice it, college football goes through the SEC. If you want to become a national power in the sport, you’ll have to show up when the lights are bright and that most likely means you’ll be facing an SEC team.

My college football projection model creates a projection rating for each team based on play-by-play data and adjusts for opponent. From those derived ratings, I’m able to then simulate every game of the season and project how many games a team will win, how often they win their conference or division, as well as how often they make the College Football Playoff and win the national title. These can then be used against the betting market or just for general trash talking among fan bases.

Here’s a look at what the model says for all 14 SEC teams this season. The Big 12 projections have already been posted.

SEC projections

XWINS is the average win total over the model’s simulations. CONF. TITLE is how often the team won the Big 12 title game. 6+ WIN is how often the team gained bowl eligibility.

For more than a decade, the SEC ran through Alabama but that no longer seems to be the case. Georgia is the two-time defending national champion and is looking to be the first team to three-peat in the sport since before World War II. Georgia wins the conference in about half of my simulations while Alabama comes out on top about 29 percent of the time.

Alabama might have taken a step back from its national dominance, but I think we are starting to doubt them a little too much. Yes, there are questions at quarterback and on the offensive line, but this will be one of the most talented teams with one of the best head coaches. The Crimson Tide lost two games last year and both came at the buzzer on the road. If things break their way, they probably get another shot at Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

Those two are a notch above the rest of the conference, but who else can make a run? LSU and Tennessee are the next most likely SEC champs at eight and seven percent, respectively. They’re the only other teams that seem to have College Football Playoff aspirations as well.

From there, no other team is more than 1.7% to win the conference and that team is…uh, Missouri. Missouri is a team that my model is relatively high on to begin the season and I’m not sure how I feel about it. Sure, they were a couple plays away from upsetting Georgia, but that success didn’t translate across the whole season as the Tigers managed to win just six games. Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Auburn are the next of the bunch, but, again, the top of this conference is so strong that it’s really just a four-horse race. More like a two-horse race if we’re being honest.

Let’s look at how my model compares to the betting market and see if there are any bets future bets worth taking a stab on. As always, shop around for the best price at various sportsbooks. If you have questions on lines that differ from mine posted below, feel free to reach out in the comments or on Twitter/Threads/Instagram (amock419).

All bets are to win a half unit on favorites or risk a half unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted.

Best bets

Auburn over 6.5 wins (-142)

The Hugh Freeze effect will be real in Auburn this fall. Freeze, while having some off the field concerns at Ole Miss, has won everywhere he has gone. There will be a huge upgrade on the sidelines at Auburn this year and that will carry over onto the field. Auburn was a trainwreck for most of last season and managed to win five games. The new coaching staff plus a talented roster should be enough to get the Tigers to seven wins. They have a very winnable non-conference schedule (no Penn State this year, but instead a road trip to Cal) and they get Vanderbilt in an SEC-crossover.

Georgia under 11.5 wins (-135)

OK, this is kind of a plug your nose bet. Georgia hasn’t lost a regular season game since the COVID season and over the last two seasons, the Bulldogs have only played two regular season games that finished as a one-score game. Oh, and they’re my No. 1 team by a decent margin. There’s always a “but” though. But Georgia lost a lot from the last two seasons. Yes, the Bulldogs are replenishing with a ton of talent and they’re great at developing that talent. The problem is that college football is made up a bunch of 18-23-year-olds and you’re bound to lose a game at some point. Throw in the fact that Georgia is replacing its offensive coordinator and Stetson Bennett, and things could take some time to smooth over in Athens this fall. Yes, Georgia’s schedule is super favorable, but both of those one-score games happened last year. They’re bound to get caught eventually.

LSU under 9.5 wins (+100)

Brian Kelly knows how to win football games. In fact, his team’s have managed to win at least nine games in every season but one since 2015 (2016 Notre Dame went 4-8). But getting to 10 in the SEC takes a certain skill that many don’t possess. Sure, LSU won the SEC West last season and quarterback Jayden Daniels returns as a Heisman Trophy candidate, but the schedule is an absolute gauntlet. The Tigers open up with Florida State, back-to-back road games against Ole Miss and Missouri will be tough and Florida comes to town after its showdown with Alabama. And I didn’t even mention home games against Arkansas, Auburn and Texas A&M. LSU isn’t an elite team in college football this year and despite the Tigers’ “success” last season, they still managed to win only nine games. I’ll take that again this year.

Missouri over 6.5 wins (+110)

As mentioned above, Missouri rates pretty high among SEC teams in my model and it’s no surprise that I’m diving in on the Tigers’ win total (among other futures, you’ll see). Missouri’s defense should be a top-25 unit in the country after returning a lot from a stout unit in 2022. The next step is the offense. If the offense can improve from being a team that might crack the top 50 to maybe a top-40 unit, this team could really make some noise. In five of their seven losses last year — including the bowl game — they failed to score more than 17 points. And in five of those seven losses, the defense didn’t give up more than 27 (including surrendering only 26 points against Georgia). Maybe I’m too optimistic on the fact that Missouri returns a good amount of their production on offense to see an improvement. But the numbers are what they are. My model thinks the offense should improve enough to turn those low-scoring losses last year into wins.