Sevilla vs Roma prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Europa League final 2023
European pedigree goes head-to-head as Sevilla and Roma match up in the Europa League final from Budapest, Hungary on Wednesday.
Six-time Europa League champions Sevilla, who have won all of their titles in this competition since 2006, take on Roma boss Jose Mourinho – the only man to have won all three current European tournaments in his career.
Roma have knocked off RB Salzburg, Real Sociedad, Feyenoord, and Bayer Leverkusen en route to the final, with defensive acumen proving effective, conceding just three goals through the knockout stage. Sevilla, meanwhile, have downed PSV, Fenerbahce, Manchester United, and Juventus, bagging 13 goals through the four matchups.
Something has to give as the two play for European silverware. Sevilla will look to crown themselves Europa League winners for the second time in the last four years, while Roma will hope to win their second straight European tournament. The title winner will earn a spot in next season's Champions League, a coveted prize to go alongside the trophy itself.
Sevilla vs Roma match facts
- Date: Wednesday, May 31
- Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Thu, Jun. 1)
- Location: Puskas Arena (Budapest, Hungary)
- Official: Anthony Taylor (ENG)
- Last meeting: Sevilla 2-0 Roma (Aug. 6, 2022 | Europa League Round of 16)
Sevilla vs Roma prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Sevilla (+170)
- Score prediction: Sevilla 1-0 Roma
The oddsmakers have absolutely no clue who will win this match, giving both teams a near equal chance of emerging with the silverware in Budapest. It's understandable why — the two sides have completely different stylistic profiles, and have been difficult to evaluate through inconsistent league and European performances across this season.
There's even a more cerebral uncertainty, as both teams — with Sevilla's Europa League pedigree and Mourinho's deep success in European football — present narrative cause for optimism.
Roma especially have been underwhelming in Serie A play, clearly placing all their eggs in the European basket as they head into the final matchday of the Italian league season on a seven-match winless run. They have kept just one clean sheet in that span, suggesting that while Mourinho is a defensive wizard in Europe, they may not be able to hold out for the entirety of the match.
Sevilla vs Roma: Best bet
- Pick: Over 5.5 total cards
- Odds: -118 (FanDuel)
- Pick: Bryan Cristiante to be booked
- Odds: +180 (FanDuel)
This game is in all likelihood going to be a car crash, but we're staying away from result and goal bets in this match, because in truth, there's too many possibilities to confidently back a certain type of result. Instead, there's an opportunity in the cards department.
The booking totals are hilariously inflated, with a bevy of cards expected. The over/under is set at 5.5 total cards, which is a high bar to clear, but still very doable between two sloppy sides. Roma's defensive masterclass against Bayer Leverkusen produced seven total bookings, while Sevilla have earned the third-most bookings in La Liga this season.
Referee Anthony Taylor has dished out 4.4 yellows per game across his five Champions League matches this season, which is a relatively high total for a European match, and he produced an obscene eight yellow cards in his one Europa League game officiated this season, which sure enough saw this Roma side beat Feyenoord in a game that saw five bookings before halftime. His 3.8 yellows per game in Premier League play ranks him atop all the other high-profile officials who regularly officiate games with the top sides (he ranks below the likes of Michael Salisbury, Peter Bankes, John Brooks, and Robert Jones who in turn are often assigned to games with worse teams and therefore more fouls).
The absence of card-happy Marcos Acuna due to suspension hurts this a bit, but there should be enough in this match to cross the high bar, and Roma midfielder Bryan Cristiante leads the Italian side in fouls conceded across all competitions this season by a significant margin.
Sevilla vs Roma prop bet
- Pick: 25+ total shots
- Odds: 10/11 (SkyBet)
Roma's stifling defensive acumen is not built on limiting chances, but instead limiting quality chances. Roma indeed haven't conceded many opportunities on net this season, with their 388 shots ranking 18th amongst Big 5 European leagues, but it's their miniscule mark of 0.08 xGA/shot faced which is No. 1 among all top five European league sides. Nobody in Europe has conceded fewer quality chances than Mourinho's Roma.
With Sevilla's attack also built on volume, not quality — they rank in the middle of European clubs in total shots but in the bottom half for xG/shot — it's conceivable that while there many not be many goals, both sides will look to take aim on net at a high rate, and the odds present a palatable opportunity with few goals expected.
