Europa League Final odds & prediction: Roma vs. Sevilla
The Champions League Final is the showpiece event on the European soccer calendar, but you could argue that the stakes are higher at the Europa League Final.
That’s because not only does the winner of Wednesday’s match between Sevilla and Roma lift a coveted trophy, but they also qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League, which is worth its weight in gold for both of these clubs.
Roma has enjoyed a much more consistent season compared to Sevilla, but it’s the La Liga side that looks more dangerous at the moment. Despite being on their third manager of the season and looking at one point like they’d be in the thick of a relegation fight in Spain, Los Rojiblancos are now 90 minutes away from an unprecedented seventh Europa League title.
Odds via Caesars, current at time of writing and subject to change.
Jose Mourinho has done a splendid job revitalizing Roma (and his career) over the past two seasons. “The Special One” guided the Giallorossi to a trophy in the Europa Conference League in 2021-22 and almost had them in the Champions League by way of a top-four finish in Serie A this campaign. Roma currently sit in sixth-place but can finish as high as fifth in the Italian top flight.
As you’d expect with a successful Mourinho side, Roma’s defense has done the talking this season. No team has conceded fewer expected goals than Roma in any of Europe’s big five leagues this season and Mourinho’s men are the second-best team in Serie A at preventing big scoring chances this campaign.
Roma’s offensive numbers aren’t as impressive, but Mourinho’s quality over quantity approach makes them one of the most dangerous counterattacking sides in Europe. Roma has registered the ninth-most shots on target in Serie A in 2022-23, but they’re fourth in expected goals created and second in big scoring chances per 90 minutes.
While Roma has been on a pretty straightforward path this season, Sevilla has been all over the place and it took the appointing of Jose Luis Mendilibar to set the six-time Europa League champions straight. Sevilla is 6-3-2 (W-D-L) in 11 La Liga matches under Mendilibar, but more impressively they took out Manchester United and Juventus in the knockout rounds of this competition.
Sevilla prefer to press higher up the pitch when they’re out of possession and have played plenty of high-event matches under Mendilibar, but that style plays into the hands of Mourinho’s Roma.
If Sevilla gets caught up the pitch, Roma will be able to counter and create scoring chances on the break for fun.Stylistically, this match seems to set up well for Roma, who should be just fine with Sevilla having most of the ball and picking their opportunities to counter. It’s worked quite well for this team for two seasons now, so why would it stop now?
The Bet: Roma +185 (Caesars)
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